Mofaz entry into Israel’s government may augur attack on Iran

By Yaakov Lappin    

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Since the shock announcement last week of the formation of a national unity government in Israel, there has been much speculation over what caused Kadima Party leader Shaul Mofaz to join forces with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s governing Likud Party.

The coalition government was formed just a few days after new elections were announced for September. Now, in light of the new coalition, elections have been put off to 2013.

Before joining the Netanyahu’s government, Mofaz, a former IDF chief of staff and Defense Minister, has used his time in the opposition to attack Netanyahu’s policies in the harshest of terms, going as far as to brand him a “liar” recently (during their joint press conference to announce the new coalition, Mofaz said the two had put the issue “behind them”).

By joining the unity government so soon after repeatedly vowing not to do so, Mofaz, who replaced Tzippi Livni as head of Kadima, has damaged his credibility for the present time at least, leading many to ask what gains Mofaz saw in the move.

Some political analysts say Mofaz’s poor elections prospects – Kadima under his leadership dropped to just eight projected Knesset seats in recent polls – pushed him into Netanyahu’s arms. According to this argument, elections in September would have resulted in the collapse of Mofaz and the Kadima Party as relevant political forces.

For their part, Mofaz and Netanyahu focused their explanation for the move on burning domestic issues. The most pressing of these is the popular call to replace the ‘Tal Law,’ which exempts the growing ultra-Orthodox community from military service. Should Netanyahu seek to change the law and introduce a universal draft, he would likely lose the ultra-Orthodox parties in his governing coalition. Now, with the Kadima Party and its 28 Knesset Members onboard, Prime Minister Netanyahu can afford to lose them and see a new law through.

The text of the coalition agreement mentioned all of the most pressing issues which the new government has vowed to tackle: Amending draft laws, fixing the system of governance, rejuvenating talks with the Palestinian Authority, and promoting social justice.

Yet it is entirely possible that the most important factor behind the creation of the unity government is the Iranian threat to Israel’s national security, and that this reason has been left out of the official explanations.

Indeed, it appears that Iran is only hinted at as a cause in the agreement. The first veiled reference to Iran is found in the preamble to the new coalition agreement, which makes a reference to the “challenges facing the State of Israel at this time, which are historical challenges, requiring the formation of widespread national agreement.”

On the surface, it seems strange to believe that Mofaz, who as head of the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee spoke out against an Israeli attack on Iran at this time, would join the government because of the Iranian threat.

Additionally, now that he has joined, it might have been tempting for the Obama administration, which has not made secret its misgivings over an Israeli military operation against Iran, to have believed that a new voice closer to its worldview was now in the Israeli government. The opposite appears to be the case.

Behind the scenes, the Iranian factor may have played the most dominant role in Mofaz’s decision to join the government, as well as Netanyahu’s invitation to him, and the gap between them over Iran may in fact be nonexistent.

Shortly after the agreement, the daily newspaper Maariv ran a report saying that irrespective of public differences on Iran, both leaders were in fact in full agreement on how to deal with the Iranian nuclear threat.

The report claimed that during three crucial meetings held between Netanyahu and Mofaz prior to forming the new government, the two “discussed Iran at length,” and that Netanyahu sought understandings from Mofaz on whether he agreed with his policy on how to stop Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

The article cited a senior diplomatic source as saying that “Mofaz is of the same mind as Netanyahu” on the Iranian threat. Furthermore, Mofaz has been granted an influential post on the sensitive inner security cabinet, which monitors and discusses the Iranian threat on a regular basis, and which would be key to any decision on the matter.

Officials in the White House appear to have reached quick conclusions about the significance of Mofaz’s entry into the government. In recent days, Israel’s Channel 10 News cited anonymous American officials as saying that marathon talks are being held in Washington over fears that the new unity government could bring forward an Israeli attack on Iran, rather than push it back, now that the idea of early general elections had been put off.

The officials said Washington was now concerned that Mofaz entered the government due to his backing of a future strike on Iran.

Mofaz’s vital new role in the government has already taken form in his inclusion in a top level discussion with the European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton, in which he and Netanyahu spelled out Jerusalem’s expectations for the upcoming talks in Baghdad between Western powers and Iran. Those expectations include a freezing of all Iranian activity to enrich uranium to 20%, the sending out of enriched uranium from Iran to another country, and the decommissioning of Iran’s underground nuclear site near the holy Shi’ite city of Qom.

Israeli officials have indicated that they do not have high hopes that the upcoming talks will succeed, and Netanyahu has repeatedly made clear that Israeli military action remains a possibility should talks and economic sanctions fail to stop the Iranian nuclear arms program.

Netanyahu has recently come under attack from two heavyweight Israeli security figures over his determination to keep the Israeli military option on the table in the near future. Yuval Diskin, former Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) chief and Meir Dagan, former head of the Mossad, have both strongly denounced the idea of an Israeli attack on Iran at this stage, with Diskin even going as far as to question the judgment of Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak.

These domestic voices are attempting to challenge the legitimacy of a current Israeli strike, and they echo the White House’s assessment, according to which there is still plenty of time to see if diplomacy and economic pressure can convince the Iranians to suspend their program.

Jerusalem does not share such optimism, and believes that as Iran further disperses its program and moves more of it underground, the window of opportunity for effective Israeli action is closing quickly.

With Mofaz and the Kadima Party now within his tent, Netanyahu will be able to address the Iranian threat with the largest coalition in decades behind him, sending a firm message to all who question the domestic legitimacy of a potential Israeli strike.

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Lappin is a visiting fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs (JINSA) and a writer for the Jerusalem Post.  JINSA columns on this site are sponsored by Waxie Sanitary Supply in memory of Morris Wax, a former member of JINSA’s national board.