By Bruce S. Ticker
PHILADELPHIA — The Jewish vote no doubt contributed to the Democratic sweeps in the series of election upsets last week.
Sizeable Jewish populations were either long established or steadily evolved in many of the states and towns where Democrats flipped not only statewide offices but also local posts. Both Nassau and Westchester counties adjacent to New York City are peopled, respectively, by 230,000 and 130,000 Jews where Democrats tossed out both county executives. Bucks County, north of Philadelphia, is home to nearly 50,000 Jews where Democrats flipped four out of five row offices.
Likewise, a substantial Jewish population has evolved in northern Virginia, the main Democratic stronghold in the state where many of the party’s candidates acutely reduced the large GOP majority in the state House of Delegates and again elected a Democratic governor. New Jersey, with nearly a half-million Jews, predictably elected a wealthy unknown Democrat as governor while snubbing the GOP lieutenant governor, as reviled Gov. Chris Christie finally exits Trenton, the state capital.
But can Democrats depend upon Jewish voters to retake Congress in 2018 or 2020? Obviously, it is not possible since far fewer Jews live in House districts where elections will be toughest.
Here is a simple idea, my modest contribution: Encourage the candidacies of more independents in House and Senate elections.
At this rate, Democrats will no doubt narrow the gap in the House of Representatives for the majority in 2018 and perhaps the Senate. It appears that Democrats will probably take the Nevada Senate seat held by Dean Heller, who could even be ousted in the Republican primary in 2018. That would whittle the Republican majority to 51 so long as Democrats do not lose any Senate seats. That’s a big if.
The people might be better off if independent candidates ran for many House seats and some Senate seats. There are probably a number of House districts in which independents would have a better chance of winning elections.
Voters may be upset with Republicans, but in some districts they will still vote the GOP line if a Democrat is their only choice. However, many will likely be open to an independent candidate. Two of our most prominent Jewish political figures have accomplished that much. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont is an independent and former Connecticut Senator Joseph I. Lieberman reflect the slow evolution of independents holding public office. Lieberman was elected as a Democrat in 1988 until he lost the Democratic nomination in 2006. He then ran as an independent in the general election and was returned to the Senate for a fourth term.
His first win in 1988 forced Lowell Weicker’s departure from the Senate, and Weicker was subsequently elected governor of Connecticut – as a Republican turned independent. Angus King was twice elected as Maine’s governor as an independent and now represents Maine in the Senate – again, as an independent. Rhode Island and Alaska have both elected former Republicans as independent governors.
On the subject of Alaska, Sen. Lisa Murkowski was the incumbent when she was defeated in the 2010 Republican primary by a Tea Partier, probably because more right-wingers turned out. Remarkably, she made an unlikely comeback by winning a write-in campaign in the general election, vanquishing both the Republican and Democratic candidates. She remains a Republican.
Though I believe Democrats will win many new seats in the House next year, I am not optimistic that they will retake the majority. However, a surge of independent candidates in the right districts might rob the Republicans of their majority.
Of course, this will create a curious situation: Neither major party will command a majority.
Hopefully, the independents will make tradeoffs with the Democrats to allow the party to take control.
The indies will likely fall short of the liberal ideologies of the Democrats, but at least they will owe no loyalty to the Republicans and work with the Democrats to hammer out sensible legislation.
Ideology is already a problem within the Democratic Party. They must accommodate Democratic senators in more conservative states like West Virginia and North Dakota so these senators will have an easier time getting re-elected.
In most cases, independent victors were already respected political figures like King, Sanders, Lieberman and Weicker. It would be no surprise if many Republicans who are abruptly retiring from the House and the Senate could readily be re-elected as independents.
It is true that Sen. Jeff Flake is unpopular with both the right and the left in Arizona, but he might be re-elected if he can convince the majority of voters that he will return to the Senate with a more sensible approach.
Distrust for former Republicans is justified, and hopefully reliable moderates will win the more iffy contests.
One understandable concern is that an independent and a Democrat will siphon votes from one another, allowing a right-wing Republican to win. However, every viable independent who has run so far has succeeded.
Besides, it will be a breath of fresh air to finally have a substantial number of citizens in Congress who will contribute new perspectives that will not be reshaped and distorted by any one party’s filter.
Author’s Note: The figures listed for local Jewish populations are based on surveys and estimates supplied by Jewish organizations and the news media. The Jewish vote likely helped Democrats win because the vast majority of Jews vote Democratic or for moderate Republicans, and their turnout rate is higher than most demographic groups.
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Ticker is a freelance writer based in Philadelphia.