By Rabbi Dow Marmur
JERUSALEM — The media pundits around the world and the diplomats in Israel and elsewhere who tried to tell Prime Minister Netanyahu what to say to Congress when he addresses both houses next month have labored in vain. In the end it’s Fatah and Hamas who’ll craft Bibi’s speech and their input is likely to vindicate his stance that Israel doesn’t really have a Palestinian partner with whom to make peace.
The much celebrated agreement between the two Palestinian factions seems to preclude negotiations with Israel. Hamas, still considered a terrorist organization by the responsible members of the international community, has just reiterated its refusal to recognize Israel. This provides Netanyahu with the compelling argument that the Palestinians don’t really want peace. He has already said to President Abbas of the Palestinian Authority that he has to choose between peace with Hamas and peace with Israel. Judging by what we know today, Abbas seems to have chosen the former.
It’s difficult to imagine that the leaders of Fatah and Hamas didn’t reckon with such an Israeli response. It’s, therefore, reasonable to speculate that, indeed, they don’t want peace. They may find greater comfort in being victims instead of having to shoulder the burden that comes with being a responsible state.
The surprised haste with which the agreement, some four years in the making, was initialed by the negotiators – it’s due to be signed soon by the titular leaders of the two sides – has probably been precipitated by the situation in Syria, where the Hamas headquarters are located. Hamas may have realized that the slow demise of President Assad will lead to a weakening of the influence of Iran, which largely bankrolls Hamas. This may have created the urgent need to close the deal with Fatah and thus gain a foothold in the West Bank in addition to continued domination in Gaza.
It may turn out to be more than a foothold. Following the principle that there’re no mergers, only takeovers, Hamas may have calculated that this is its opportunity to become the rulers of all the Palestinian territories and thrive on its avowed hostility to the Jewish state, this time without Egyptian restraints. New elections are due shortly, but there’s no guarantee that they’ll be freer than in many other countries in the region. As Hamas is retaining its own army, the scope of its power remains well-nigh unlimited.
Though the new situation seems to have provided some respite to the Government of Israel in taking steps toward peace, it would be foolish to assume that the situation for Israel as a whole has been improved. That may happen, we pray, in the fullness of time, but we aren’t there yet. In fact, Israel must be prepared for more surprises of the same ilk.
Therefore, even greater political vigilance and military readiness is called for, which makes a fresh case for a unity government. Hitherto, Kadima, the opposition party, has refused to join a Likud led coalition in the belief that, contrary to the Likud doctrine, the Palestinian Authority is a genuine partner for peace negotiations. This may now be very difficult to maintain. Therefore, in view of the need for unity in the light not only of the situation in Palestine but also the volatility in the region as a whole, Kadima may not be able to afford to stay away if it wants to maintain its credibility with the electorate.
Even experts seem to refrain from making long-term forecasts. All we can do is watch and hope and pray.
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