No instant experts in Israel

By Rabbi Dow Marmur

JERUSALEM –I’ve always pleaded with visitors to Israel not to believe that, after a brief visit or an orchestrated “mission,” they really understand the situation here. Instead, I’ve urged them to be settling for being confused even after – or because of – all they’ve seen and heard, but if possible confused on a higher level.

As we’re about to leave for Toronto, I know that as hard as I’ve tried to follow events here, in the end I’m even more confused now than I was when we arrived last December. Despite my earnest efforts to keep my eyes and ears open, much of what has happened since our arrival is almost invariably subject to opposing, yet equally compelling, interpretations. Often I feel like agreeing with them all.

Of all the burning issues in the region, probably none is more urgent for Israel than the accord between Fatah and Hamas brokered by Egypt to be signed later this week. It’s an important step in the current efforts to proclaim a Palestinian state by September.

The announced official Israeli strategy is to oppose the plan in every possible way by arguing that only a bilateral agreement with Israel, not a unilateral proclamation, can make peace. The implication is always that the Palestinians don’t want to negotiate.

Part of Israel’s past arguments has been that a divided Palestine, ruled by Fatah in the West Bank and by Hamas in Gaza, doesn’t make for a viable state and a credible negotiating partner. The new arrangement has removed that argument.

But instead of welcoming the effort to unite, the spokesman of the hardliners in Israel’s government – some say the de facto prime minister – Avigdor Lieberman, has declared that the agreement between the two factions is evidence that Hamas – i.e., Iran – is about to take over also the West Bank, a totally unacceptable situation for Israel.

But others have argued that the Hamas-Fatah accord is the result of Palestinian frustration due to the inaction of the Government of Israel and the inability of its titular prime minister to take decisions. They see the new situation as perhaps the last chance Israel has to make a peace offer the Palestinians cannot refuse. Even if Hamas continues to insist that it won’t recognize Israel, the new Palestinian government will.

I don’t know which side is right. My confusion is further compounded by the fact that even experts seem to be unable to determine whether the change of regime in Egypt and the threat to Assad’s hold of Syria are necessarily bad for Israel. Much will depend, of course, where Iran ends up in all this. Again, there’re signs pointing in both directions.

The fear is that the Obama administration is as confused as the rest of us. Those who urge an Israeli initiative also say that Prime Minister Netanyahu shouldn’t pursue his flirtation with the Republican Congress but stick to the Democratic President and allow for a joint imaginative effort that would allow for Palestinian statehood while guaranteeing Israel’s security. They say that such an effort could be successful.

For the next few months I’ll watch events from afar and refrain from commenting. My limited challenge will be not to yield to the neo-con rhetoric of many members of the Canadian Jewish community which so often confuses wishful thinking with solid analysis. The result of the Canadian elections on May 2 may further complicate matters.

As in Israel so in Canada, I’ll continue to plead with all who want to hear to refrain from rush judgments. This may be unpopular but at least I hope it’ll be honest.

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Rabbi Marmur is spiritual leader emeritus of Holy Blossom Temple in Toronto.  He now divides his year between Canada and Israel.  He may be contacted at dow.marmur@sdjewishworld.com