By Gary Rotto
SAN DIEGO — President Obama’s speech is the most recent in a series of events that change the landscape of the Middle East. The Arab Spring, the killing of Osama bin Laden and the accord between Fatah and Hamas all have come in a matter of weeks. More changes in the Middle East could result.
Since the expulsion of Fatah from the Gaza Strip and the resulting splitting in half of the Palestinian Authority, the mantra has been that there is no one for Israel to negotiate with for a final settlement. The reasoning was that you can’t have a settlement with the Palestinian Authority as it only represents the West Bank and not Gaza. And you can’t negotiate with the Hamas government that has called for the destruction of Israel.
With the Hamas- Fatah reconciliation, there is now one party to negotiate with. The sticking point is that Hamas has neither directly recognized Israel’s right to exist nor renounced terrorism. But that may very well change due to the success of the Arab Spring Uprisings.
The Facebook generation of Arab activists succeeded not only through organizing via social media, but also showing that non-violent protest can achieve great things. Non violent protests also tend to focus on messages of hope. Great changes have resulted in Tunisia and Egypt. These successes demonstrate that there is an alternative to the despair driven and religious fanaticism driving suicide bombings and violent actions of Hamas.
With the right prodding and diplomatic approach, the meaning of “Nakba” can morph to recognize that the “Catastrophe” was really the Arab rejection of the UN Partition Plan of 1948 – that the catastrophe was that the Palestinians were abandoned by the Arab leadership of that time. But to achieve recognition of this definition will take deft diplomacy and a willingness on the part of Israel and her supporters to not become stuck in rhetoric.
The striving for a UN resolution to recognize Palestinian Statehood is another non-violent action that circumvents the impasse of negotiations. There are those who will point out that technically, Yassar Arafat declared Palestinian statehood back in 1988 and that 89 countries recognized this declaration at that time. But if the Arab Spring does not wither during the hot Middle Eastern Summer, such a diplomatic maneuver will have to be dealt with. President Obama has marked his spot on this issue by stating, “For the Palestinians, efforts to delegitimize Israel will end in failure. Symbolic actions to isolate Israel at the United Nations in September won’t create an independent state.“ His remarks and the resulting diplomatic tack undertaken by the US State Department will slow this maneuver. But negotiations will continue – even with Hamas rejoining Fatah in governance of the Palestinian Authority.
The PLO rhetoric if not also its charter was changed as part of the Oslo Accords so that:
… the PLO renounces the use of terrorism and other acts of violence and will assume responsibility over all PLO elements and personnel in order to assure their compliance, prevent violations and discipline violators
- … those articles of the Palestinian Covenant which deny Israel’s right to exist, and the provisions of the Covenant which are inconsistent with the commitments of this letter are now inoperative and no longer valid.
Since Fatah was the dominant faction within the PLO, it could reasonably be said that this was a new path that Fatah needed to embark upon.
So history suggests that Hamas could walk down the same road. But this will happen only with negotiations, not with a unilateral declaration. Hamas needs the fig leaf of a negotiated settlement of some type in order to make the necessary changes. And the precedent of the Oslo Accords is there.
Are either the Facebook Revolution or the success of Fatah in pursuing a UN Declaration, rendering Hamas a relic of the past? Maybe. In an interview with Robert Siegel on NPR’s “All Things Considered” Hamas’ Deputy Foreign Minister Ghazi Hamad stated that they have accepted the premise of a two state solution that “respects” the 1967 borders. Another factor could be that unemployment in the Hamas- controlled Gaza Strip numbers 37.9% while in Fatah controlled West Bank, unemployment is only 17.3%. One thing that the Arab Spring showed is that the people of Egypt and Tunisia want better lives for them and their families. They want not only political reform, but really economic reform. And Fatah has been much better at that than Hamas.
Respecting and insisting on 1967 borders are two different things. Respecting those borders could include negotiating to “give” area outside of those borders (such as the settlements) to Israel in exchange for land inside of the current borders of Israel. Which land? Maybe some of the Arab villages. Maybe part of the negotiations could be to allow a referendum in certain Arab villages to decide their own fate: to stay in Israel or become part of a new Palestinian state.
This is the type of creative thinking that key diplomats can ponder and develop. And one key, experienced diplomat who comes to mind is Dennis Ross. Ambassador Ross, is a deep, creative thinker who has worked in this region on behalf of the first President Bush and President Clinton. With George Mitchell bowing out of the position of Special Envoy for Middle East Peace, the path is cleared for an enhanced profile and renewed peacemaking for the veteran Ross. And with his engagement, the Arab Spring could continue in new and different ways.
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Rotto is a freelance writer based in San Diego. He may be contacted at gary.rotto@sdjewishworld.com