By Rabbi Dow Marmur
JERUSALEM– As Israelis begin to talk about elections, two players – one new, the other recycled – are said to be about to form centrist-right parties. The new player is Yair Lapid, a TV personality and the son of the late Tommy Lapid who once had formed a party that had more than a dozen seats in the Knesset and made him a minister before it disintegrated.
The recycled one is Arieh Deri, former leader of the Shas party who, like some other Israeli politicians, ended up in jail for misappropriation of funds. After his release, his successor as party leader, Eli Yishai, wasn’t keen to step aside and the guru of the party, Rabbi Ovadiah Yosef, didn’t want Deri back. But Deri’s turn may have now come. According to a recent poll, Lapid’s party, should he form one, is likely to split Kadima. Deri’s party would split Shas. It’s unlikely, however, that the direction of the next government will change radically, even though Labour under Sheli Yachimovitch will recover some of the ground lost by her predecessor Ehud Barak.
Part of the good news in the current wave of polls and speculations is that Barak and his gang won’t even make it to the Knesset, which suggests that he’ll join Likud. His three sidekicks will have to fend for themselves, probably by creeping back to Labour. Neither Netanyahu’s Likud nor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu are likely to be affected by the new constellation. The two may even get one or two more mandates next time.
But, though the next government will remain on the Right, it could rid itself of Lieberman whose bark may be less damaging in opposition than it has been in his current role as Foreign Minister. Once he’s out of office, the police may at last also go ahead and indict him for the usual Israeli politicians’ crimes, this time including money laundering.
The main loser is likely to be Tzipi Livni. Perhaps even before the next election, but definitely afterwards, she’ll be replaced by Shaul Mofaz, her deputy and archrival. Though Mofaz isn’t much to write home about, judging by his pronouncements so far he may get Kadima to join the government in place of Yisrael Beiteinu, which would be a good thing. Lapid and Deri may also want to join the new crew. There’s probably very little between Mofaz and Likud and if the price is right he may even want to merge the two parties, especially if Netanyahu makes him Minister of Defense and exiles Barak to his allegedly luxury apartment in Tel Aviv. Though, as suggested above, the next government may have a different composition, its policies are likely to remain the same.
That’s bad news because: 1. There’ll be no new Israeli initiative with regard to the peace process. Not that the Palestinians seem very keen to restart it (they have presidential elections of their own soon, and Mahmoud Abbas will not be running), but a bold Israeli move could go a long way and at least restore Israel’s tattered international image. 2. Settlements will continue to expand. Should the government even symbolically try to remove illegal outposts militant settlers will hold it to ransom by acts of vandalism and terror of the kind we’ve seen of late. 3. The ultra-Orthodox will continue to take cynical and unfair advantage with more extremist-misogynist shenanigans at the expense of the rest of the population. Though peace on the borders may remain, peace in the cities may not. Which brings me to my usual conclusion: Start worrying, particulars to follow.
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Rabbi Marmur is spiritual leader emeritus of Holy Blossom Temple in Toronto. He now divides his time between Canada and Israel and may be contacted at dow.marmur@sdjewishworld.com