By Rabbi Dow Marmur
JERUSALEM — While former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak was being carried on a stretcher into court in Cairo, King Abdullah of Jordan was hosting Israeli and Palestinian representatives in Amman about the possibility of resuming peace talks after more than a year’s break. Neither side is holding out any hope, but the Quartet, fronted by Tony Blair, needs a new Arab anchor man, now that Mubarak is out of the picture and it’s most unlikely that any successor of his will assume the role of an ostensible honest broker. So this is Abdullah’s chance; those in the know say he needs it. Blair may need it, too. Both sides insist that the meeting is at best only talks about talks – not talks – because each has constituents who make demands or have expectations that the other cannot meet.
The Palestinians say they would consider peace if Israel withdrew to the pre-1967 borders and, as a token, stopped expanding the settlements and East Jerusalem right away. Their opponents say that that’s only an excuse, not a reason. The Israelis will not agree to any Palestinian preconditions, probably knowing full well that their refusal will keep the Palestinians away from serious talks, which may suit both sides just fine.
As Foreign Minister Lieberman is said to have told the Israeli ambassadors around the world at their annual meeting recently, the conflict cannot be solved at present, so it must be managed. Both sides are trying to manage it by leaving things as they are, i.e., neglect in the absence of ingenuity. As far as Israel is concerned, this means expanding the settlements and the Jewish population of East Jerusalem which makes any future agreement less and less likely. While those who can do something about peace are making sure that nothing will be done, the public at large continues to demand it. That’s the outcome of yet another opinion poll, this one conducted by very respectable outfits in Jerusalem and Ramallah. The statistics are fairly consistent about ordinary Palestinians and Israelis favoring peace, but the polls will do little to influence those in power. The Geneva Initiative website (www.heskem.org.il) has the details.
Its proponents continue to advocate negotiations. But their voice, like the voice of ordinary folk, counts for very little. The voice of one man – the President of the United States – counts for a lot, probably more than the voices of those who sit in the Israeli and the Palestinian cabinets, but that voice won’t be saying much – other than making fine speeches – during 2012, because this is US presidential election year. The candidates, including the President, have bigger fish to fry, mainly domestic. It’ll be different next year, especially if Obama is re-elected, which seems likely. Because he, probably correctly, perceives Binyamin Netanyahu as an American Republican who moonlights as the prime minister of Israel, once Obama has his second term he’ll try to put Netanyahu in his place. It won’t be good for those who think they can manage the present situation. As it is now, the Israeli Right considers Obama a foe; after 2013 he may vindicate its fears.
But the ritual of pretending to talk continues. Had the Prophet Jeremiah been around, he could have quoted himself from some 2500 years ago: “Every one deals falsely…saying: ‘Peace, peace,’ when there is no peace” (6:13-14).
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Marmur is spiritual leader emeritus of Holy Blossom Temple in Toronto. He now divides his time between Canada and Israel and may be contacted at dow.marmur@sdjewishworld.com