By Rabbi Dow Marmur
JERUSALEM–What most Israelis anticipated has now been confirmed: Tsipi Livni has been replaced by Shaul Mofaz as the Head of Kadima and thus also the Leader of the Opposition in the Knesset. Less than 40 percent of the party members bothered to vote; Mofaz got the support of over 60 percent of those who did.
Much suggests that the result is more a vote against Livni than for Mofaz. Though the two had been at loggerheads since Livni was elected in succession to two former Prime Ministers (Sharon, now for many years in a coma, and Olmert perhaps on his way to jail on charges of corruption), she hasn’t exactly dazzled the Israeli public.
Her big mistake may have been to refuse to serve in Netanyahu’s government because her party had 28 mandates in the Knesset against his party’s 27. She wouldn’t accept the fact that she wasn’t able to form a government whereas he was, and did. Had she not insisted on being Prime Minister or else, but settled for staying as Foreign Minister, a post she held under Olmert, the country may have been spared from having Avigdor Lieberman in that office: the first Israeli Foreign Minister who is something of a persona non grata in the important capitals of the world.
In opposition, Livni seemed unable to confront the government with credible alternative policies or tell the people what she and her party stood for. Perhaps she was too distracted by the internal fights with Mofaz who lost the last round by just a few hundred votes. As a result, the Israeli public lost interest in her which now the members of her own party have confirmed.
There’s no shortage of speculations what will happen to Kadima now, especially as has been rumored that Livni may leave politics altogether. The campaign on behalf of the two contestants has revealed that the party that was originally composed of former members of Likud (including Livni herself) and Labor (at the time also the current President of Israel Shimon Peres) is still divided. Livni’s votes are said to have come from Greater Tel Aviv, which is a Labor stronghold, whereas Mofaz’s supporters are in the North and South of the country, including among Israeli Arabs.
The division may have more social and cultural than political implications. Livni is a Likud “princess” (her father was Menachem Begin’s closest collaborator). Mofaz, on the other hand, was born in Iran and grew up as a poor immigrant. He rose in the ranks to end up as Israel’s Chief of Staff. She’s very much Ashkenazi, he’s part of the Oriental majority i nIsrael; the distinction is still very relevant.
If Kadima survives, it’s likely to be greatly diminished. Livni’s supporters may find their way (some of them back) to Labor which seems to be experiencing something of a revival under its new leader Sheli Yachimovitch. Mofaz may look for ways of cooperating with Likud with an eye on joining, if not this then the next Netanyahu government, perhaps replacing Defense Minister Ehud Barak, whose credibility is steadily diminishing. (The received wisdom is that Netanyahu will indeed remain as Prime Minister after the next general election.)
Though Jews and non-Jews abroad may regret the departure of Livni, because she was associated with Olmert’s efforts to make peace with the Palestinians, Israelis aren’t likely to miss her as she didn’t make much of an impact when she led the Opposition.
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Rabbi Marmur is spiritual leader emeritus of Holy Blossom Temple in Toronto. Now dividing his time between Canada and Israel, he may be contacted at dow.marmur@sdjewishworld.com