By Rabbi Dow Marmur
JERUSALEM — There’s talk of early elections in Israel. Though the government has still more than a year to go, it needs to replace the so-called Tal Law that de facto exempts the ultra-Orthodox (haredim) from military service and which some time ago the Supreme Court declared to be unconstitutional.
This has become an occasion for Yisrael Beiteinu to flex its muscles by proposing a new law that would obligate everybody – including haredi and Arab citizens – to do compulsory military or community service. The haredi Shas and Yahadut Hatorah parties, currently in the coalition, are vehemently opposed to it and are likely to break the coalition. Hence new elections, probably later this year.
This is good news for Netanyahu. The polls indicate that his Likud party will get even more mandates than it has now which means that he’ll remain in office to become the longest serving prime minister in Israel’s history.
It may also be good news for many others. Though it’s unlikely that the next government will be liberal, it may be more open than the present, because we can safely assume that Kadima under its new leader Shaul Mofaz and Atid, the party TV personality Yair Lapid is forming, will join the coalition as will Yisrael Beiteinu and some other small groups currently in the government. Most show signs of at least some liberal traits.
This would mean that it’s good news for ordinary folk who’re tired of haredi politics and outraged that the latter don’t have to serve in the army while being able to sponge on the welfare system. Now at least they may have to do army service or serve in hospitals, ambulance and fire services, community centres, etc.
If the new law expecting universal service to the state can be implemented – and that’s a big if – it’ll be bad news for haredim. Virtually all previous governments have included the ultra-Orthodox. It’s not clear whether, in the last resort, they’ll stay out this time. They’re known to sell themselves and their principles for concessions to their own institutions. It may be trickier this time, but nothing is beyond them.
It’s terrible news for Ehud Barak’s Atzmaut party. According to predictions it wouldn’t get a single mandate. As Barak has given up on having principles when he destroyed Labour before it was reconstituted under Sheli Yachimovitch, it’s anticipated that he’ll now join Likud in the hope of getting a respectable place on the party list.
I’m uncharacteristically optimistic about a possible change of government, because the next one may show at least some signs of openness: in addition to military service, perhaps sensitivity to the needs of the underprivileged.
Unfortunately, it won’t entail a change on settlement policy or peace negotiations. Nor is it reasonable to expect a more liberal attitude to the hapless refugees who find their way to Israel. For that Labour would have to join and, if the polls are correct, Netanyahu will have a solid majority without having to make concessions to the Left.
Needless to say, the above are speculations with a touch of wishful thinking. In reality things may turn out different, but probably not very different. There’s no alternative prime minister on the horizon – unless, of course, President Peres will return to party politics when his presidential term expires, which is around his 90th birthday. He told a journalist the other day that he’s still at the beginning of his career.
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Rabbi Marmur is spiritual leader emeritus of Holy Blossom Temple in Toronto. Now dividing his time betweeen Canada and Israel, he may be contacted at dow.marmur@sdjewishworld.com