By Laurie Baron in San Diego
Every year I predict the Oscar winners in major categories based on surveys of what the Hollywood trade publications are predicting. I name a likely winner if my prediction is wrong.
Best Picture: One Battle After Another This is the most highly contested category since Sinners garnered a record 16 nominations and won other Best Picture awards this year. Sinners may emerge on top.
Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another. This is a repeat of the Best Picture category. Anderson has received 14 previous nominations and never won, but Ryan Coogler of Sinners would be the first Black recipient of this award.
Best Actress: Jessie Buckley for Hamnet. Buckley is the odds-on favorite. Nobody else comes close.
Best Actor: Michael B. Jordan for Sinners. Timothee Chalamet’s manic portrayal of a driven competitive ping pong player in Marty Supreme is the most likely contender for winning if Jordan doesn’t.
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Madigan for Weapons. Otherwise, it should be Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another.
Best Supporting Actor: Sean Penn for One Battle After Another. It’s possible that Stellan Skarsgard could win for Sentimental Value.
Best Original Screenplay: Sinners. In the unlikely event Sinners loses, then Marty Supreme has the best chance of being honored with this award.
Best Adapted Screenplay: One Battle After Another. Hamnet is the dark horse in this category.
Best International Feature Film: Stellan Skarsgard for Sentimental Value. The Secret Agent is the most frequently named as the alternative behind Sentimental Value.
Best Documentary Feature: The Perfect Neighbor appears to be the best bet in this category. Nevertheless, Mr. Nobody Against Putin should not be discounted as a possible winner.
Best Animated Feature: KPop Demon Hunters has been winning in this category from most cinema organizations, but Zootopia 2 took home the British Academy Film Award for Best Animated Feature and might beat out KPop Demon Hunters.
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Laurie Baron, retired from San Diego State University, is a professor emeritus of history.