By Bruce S. Ticker in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Pro-Israel Americans are understandably worried that an Israel-basher who suggested violence against a U.S. senator is now a Democratic nominee for the Senate himself – thanks to Michigan Democrats.
Worse, center-left Jews and other like-minded Democrats are frantic that Republicans will hold onto the Senate majority after the general election because the GOP nominee for the Senate, former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, could defeat Abdul El-Sayed in November.
I want Democrats to retake the Senate majority, but not at the expense of electing a troublemaker who contributes to the dangerous environment facing Jews worldwide. President Trump and his Republican majorities in Congress will surely lose the House of Representatives majority and the careers of at least half dozen GOP Senate candidates are threatened. They can thank in part the severe damage to the economy and for waging an unwinnable war with Iran.
A path to a Democratic majority in the Senate is still possible even if Republicans win Senate elections in Maine and Michigan. If Rogers wins, Democrats will lose a Senate seat now occupied by Sen. Gary Peters, who is retiring. If re-elected, Maine’s Sen. Susan Collins will start her sixth term for a Republican seat after pundits considered her the nation’s most vulnerable GOP incumbent.
Let’s do the math. Democrats could lose two seats that under normal circumstances they would have an excellent chance to win. There is a range of possibilities in other states. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to retake the Senate, or a net gain of five seats to improve chances for revising the filibuster rule.
Even a net gain of five seats is possible. This is not wishful thinking.
With the Maine Senate post uncertain, Democrats in North Carolina have the best chance of flipping the state’s Senate seat. Democrats who won statewide office in recent years are running for Senate seats in Ohio and Alaska. Developments in Iowa suggest that Democrats have a strong chance of taking the Senate seat being vacated by Republican Joni Ernst, and Democrats have represented Iowa in the Senate before.
Democrat James Talarico is outpolling Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in Texas, our second most populous state. Talarico has on his side voter concerns about the Trump economy and a large Latino population that feels betrayed by the president’s immigration policies that affect Hispanics.
Paxton himself was impeached by the Texas House over a proposed whistleblower lawsuit settlement in which several of Paxton’s former aides said they were fired after alleging that he accepted bribes and other misconduct. Paxton, who denied any wrongdoing, was acquitted in the Texas Senate.
Kentucky, Kansas, Montana and Louisiana make this list as longshots because Democrats have held statewide office in the past. The current governors of Kentucky and Kansas are Democrats.
So far, that’s nine potential wins. I am not counting on any of these states, but I am saying that circumstances position Democrats for the chance to flip enough seats to retake the majority.
Oh, did I mention our third most populous state? Retired Lt. Col. Alex Vindman is competing against Florida state representative Angie Nixon for the Democratic nomination for the Senate.
Vindman became a national legend in 2019 when he served as a whistleblower during Trump’s first impeachment trial. He retired from the Army the following year and moved to Broward County, one of Florida’s most populous counties.
On the surface, Vindman appears to be a powerful candidate for statewide office, one who is prominent enough to disrupt the Republican winning streak. If he is nominated, he would be running against incumbent GOP Sen. Ashley Moody.
Florida has in the past been represented by Democrats in the Senate and the governor’s office. Some victorious Republicans won by narrow margins at times. Senior Sen. Rick Scott won two elections by one percent of the vote, for his first term for the Senate and an election for governor.
Nixon repeatedly accuses Israel of genocide and Vindman, who is Jewish, was described in The Tampa Bay Times as having a lukewarm position on Israel. We’ll find out if their differences on Israel will deny him the nomination on Aug. 18.
If he is nominated, he may have a better chance than Nixon of getting elected. In an understatement, he said, “I think Floridians tend to be less ideologically driven. Folks are much, much more focused on pragmatic and practical candidates and folks that can deliver some real relief and folks with a strong track record.”
It is hard to believe El-Sayed can possibly get elected in the general election, no matter how much voters dislike Republicans. Mike Rogers, the Republican nominee, has not distorted the facts of the Middle East conflict as El-Sayed has done.
El-Sayed revealed his true self that Politico reported on an audio when he told donors: “Ideally you put one ogre on a pike, and then everyone else gets the message.” He confirmed during a candidates’ debate that night that he was referring to Sen. John Fetterman, a Pennsylvania Democrat who has openly derided anti-Israel candidates.
Fetterman, incidentally, warned last week that he would not vote to eliminate the filibuster because it has been useful in blocking flawed Republican policies.
It is too tough to project the outcome of the Maine election. Susan Collins, the incumbent, is being challenged by Democrat Troy Jackson, who previously called Israel’s actions “genocide.” However, he has reportedly avoided addressing Middle East issues since Democrats selected him in a special convention.
Maine politics were shaken up when an ex-girlfriend of former Democratic candidate Graham Platner accused him of rape, which he denies. He was nominated in the Democratic primary and dropped out of the race when the accusations became public.
The Platner scandal has since made the “Free Palestine” movement vulnerable to pushback. Prominent people have been attacking progressive candidates since then. Let’s hope that translates to election of a productive Congress.
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Bruce S. Ticker is a Philadelphia-based columnist.