By Rabbi Dow Marmur
JERUSALEM– Why has President Barack Obama of the United States turned his back on President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt? There’s no shortage of speculations. For example:
1. Obama is a naïve idealist who believes that because the unrest in Egypt currently manifests itself as a popular rebellion of the young against the oppressive regime of the aging Egyptian president and his coterie, this is the beginning of true democracy, which, of course, America likes to see around the world. The US administration doesn’t seem to realize what’s obvious to most analysts that extremists are using the idealistic youths for their own purposes and that El Baradei is currently but only temporarily the convenient tool of the Islamic Brotherhood.
2. Obama and his advisers are not naïve but have reliable intelligence that suggests that what’s happening in Egypt will spread to other countries in the region, including Iran, and result in something similar to what happened in Eastern Europe in 1989 when the Soviet empire and its satellites crumbled. This is the dawn of a new era, the beginning of Pax Americana in the Middle East.
3. Obama cannot be trusted. In the same way as he turned against the Egyptian ally today, he may turn against the Israeli ally tomorrow. In fact, the coolness between him and Netanyahu already points in that direction. We’re a people who dwell alone in every sense of the word. Even our ostensible friends are fickle and/or two-faced.
The likelihood is that nnone of the above is correct, nor are the many variations on the theme. It may be just that everybody acts according to short-term and short-sighted local interests confusing the difference between tactics and strategy. The most short-sighted of them all may turn out to be the instructions that Israel’s diplomats are said to have received around the world to encourage governments to support Mubarak. Though no doubt Mubarak’s survival as president is in the best interest of Israel, it’s also the least likely scenario. By Israel going out on a limb it already assures itself of the enmity of whoever succeeds the present Egyptian regime with potentially disastrous consequences for Israel. Not that El Baradei or the Muslim Brotherhood needs reasons to oppose Israel, but it’s not for Israel to give them more excuses.
Yossi Sarid, whom I like to quote because he writes so well and is so insightful, makes a distinction between intelligence as secret information and intelligence as brain power. From previous experience we may conclude that the government of Israel doesn’t seem to have much access to the former. Sarid concentrates on the fact that it’s totally deficient of the latter. Compared to Obama’s alleged naivete, this may turn out to be outright dangerous stupidity. The situation is awkward and very complicated. It’s quite possible that the United States doesn’t have a grip on it either. But if Sarid and others are right, Israel seems to be totally out of touch with the Egyptian reality, even though it’s first in the firing line.
Mercifully, there’re still those who say that the 30-year old peace treaty between Egypt and Israel will hold and that the outcome of the present upheaval won’t be as dramatic as pessimists predict. The Egyptian army will step in and save the country from chaos, at least in the short term. In the absence of enough hard facts, we’re free to speculate, perhaps even hope.
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Marmur is spiritual leader emeritus of Holy Blossom Temple in Toronto. He now divides his year between Canada and Israel