By Rabbi Dow Marmur
JERUSALEM–Like many others in Israel, I find it difficult to form an informed opinion about what’s happening in Egypt and (having started in Tunisia) obviously spreading to other countries. My liberal outlook on life and politics and my Jewish commitments are once again at odds – and I’m by no means unique. Even the government of Israel doesn’t seem to know how to react officially to what has happened to its neighbour to the south.
On the one hand, like all liberals, I rejoice in the drive to democracy and the striking results of a basically bloodless revolution (despite the casualties of the early days when the now deposed regime still thought that, once again, it could beat the hell out of the protesters). I too feel like dancing in the streets of Cairo.
On the other hand, I’m worried because I don’t know what this means for Israel.
Though there was comparatively little anti-Israel rhetoric in the protests, and though one would expect spokespersons for the Muslim Brotherhood to come out against Israel, now an apparently respected opposition figure in Egypt, Ayman Nour, who is said to be a liberal, made a statement to the effect that the new Egypt must reconsider its peace treaty with Israel. No doubt the experts will scrutinize his words in detail and efforts will be made to make friendly contact with him, but being a worrier by nature, I don’t feel inhibited to express concern: the cold peace may warm up in the wrong way.
Even if responsible Egyptians believe that peace with Israel is good for their country, most ordinary citizens, building on established myths and prejudices, may not. In an effort to get their votes, politicians may say what the masses want to hear. I don’t know any country where those who offer themselves for election don’t, at least sometimes, compromise with their views, or at least economize with stating them, not to alienate potential voters. It’s the ugly side of democracy.
After much controversy and a lot of recriminations – with more to come, judging by a book that has just appeared – a new Chief of Staff is taking over the IDF on February 14. It’s reasonable to assume that one of his first tasks will be to reconsider border arrangements with Egypt and Gaza as well as reinforce the intelligence about the moves and intentions of the Egyptian armed forces now in charge of the country.
Two of the immediate effects of the regime change are, first, the growing risk of more arms and goods being smuggled in to Gaza as Egypt may not try to curb it and, second, the growing risk of even more illegal immigrants being smuggled into Israel because the Egyptians won’t try to stop them. Both these measures may promote human rights – breaking the Gaza blockade and allowing people to move freely across borders – but they do increase the pressure on and the risk to Israel.
Though only experts may know, I read some opinions to the effect that an attack on Iran, now when the neighbouring Arab countries are in turmoil or potential turmoil, is even more unlikely, because Israel (with the United States, openly or tacitly) would have needed their cooperation for a military intervention. On the other hand, the chances of Iran also imploding have increased. All that sounds like good news: no war.
All in all, however, I cannot but remain confused and, because of the uncertainty, troubled. And I’m not alone in Israel who holds these or similar views. It’s yet another version of fearing bad news with the message, “start worrying – letter follows.”
*
Rabbi Marmur is spiritual leader emeritus of Holy Blossom Temple in Toronto. He now divides his time between Canada and Israel