By Rabbi Dow Marmur
JERUSALEM — The recent murder of five members of a family in the settlement of Itamar, the continued rocket barrage deep into the Negev, and now an explosion in the centre of Jerusalem that took the life of a woman from Britain and injured many seem to have prompted partisan interpretations from both ends of the Israeli political spectrum.
Those on the Left, like Yossi Sarid in Ha’aretz, see it as evidence that the at best lukewarm response by the Government of Israel to efforts by the Palestinian Authority (PA) to present itself as a serious partner in the pursuit of peace is the real cause of the rise of terrorism. These pundits predict that there’ll be more of the same as the terrorists rob moderate Palestinian leaders of their authority and inhibit them from taking realistic steps – that would include many sacrifices – toward peace.
Those on Israel’s political Right point to recent events as evidence that Israel has no partner and that whatever it may do in pursuit of peace, the extremist elements among the Palestinians will gain the upper hand. The way forward, they seem to imply, isn’t to talk to the PA but destroy the terrorists’ pay masters, particularly Iran. Foreign Minister Lieberman, always ready with a bon mot (yes, he said it in France), has suggested that the West should bomb Iran and Syria the way it’s bombing Libya.
Despite my suspicion of simple answers, I’ve a hunch that the recent flare-up of Palestinian terrorist activities in the name of freedom for their people, is, ironically, their way of retaining the present volatile (“normal”) situation.
Now when even Hamas appears to be moderate in comparison to Islamic Jihad, which is behind the attacks from Gaza (we don’t know yet who caused murder and mayhem in Itamar and Jerusalem), it’s likely that those bent on destruction are richly rewarded by Iran and would lose their jobs if peace breaks out. For them the status quo is the best they can hope for. Firing rockets and shells is their means of job retention.
Perhaps (now comes the heresy) it’s also good news for Jewish extremists and their outwardly moderate fellow-travellers. Though the polls suggest that the majority of Israelis want peace (shalom) it’s not clear that they’re ready to pay (leshalem) for it. As every agreement is likely to be subject to a referendum before Israel signs on the dotted line, it’s difficult to imagine that the majority will be prepared to give up part of Jerusalem and most of the settlement in an agreement with the Palestinians.
Therefore (and now comes the pessimism), the recent escalation is calculated to make sure that things stay the same (“normal”) in the foreseeable future. However, though neither Hamas nor Israel want matters to get out of hand that may lead to another invasion of Gaza (Cast Lead Mark II), this kind of volatile situation is difficult to control..
In the past there was always the hope that a third party (a.k.a. USA) would use its influence to calm things down, but that influence is on the decline. The closer we come to the US presidential elections – when Republican hopefuls who’ve nothing to lose will pretend to champion the cause of the Netanyahu government – no imaginative initiatives should be expected from President Obama. For all the talk of the Quartet and others getting involved, politicians who count in the world (unlike demonstrators in marginal countries) have realized that stability in the Middle East doesn’t depend on what happens between Israel and the Palestinians but on developments in Egypt, Syria, Yemen, etc, etc.
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Rabbi Marmur is spiritual leader emeritus of Holy Blossom Temple in Toronto. He now divides his year between Canada and Israel. He may be contacted at dow.marmur@sdjewishworld.com