Is Arab ‘spring’ coiled to strike Israel?

By Rabbi Dow Marmur

TORONTO, Canada–As hard as I try, I can’t really get out of the ghetto. This means that I evaluate world events according to the criterion, “Is it good or bad for the Jews?” But the present situation in the Middle East doesn’t seem to lend itself to it. That’s why I found it so difficult to deal with the issue when I spoke to a group of friends here last night. This postscript is a summary. My excuse is a saying by Anton Chekhov, “Only fools and charlatans understand everything.”

 I hope that I’m neither a fool nor a charlatan but a well-intentioned liberal and, therefore, always in favour of the overthrow of tyrants. I feel that the ostensible democracy movement in Syria should be applauded and supported. On the other hand, what we’ve seen of it so far – e.g., the storming of the border with Israel by hordes of people on Nakba Day – isn’t good for the Jews. Assad, father and son, may have been sworn enemies of Israel and oppressors of their own people, but they stuck to their agreements with the Jewish state even as they loathed it.

Things in Egypt are equally confusing. Again, democracy is a good thing and the ouster of Mubarak no doubt justified, but Mubarak kept the peace with Israel. It may have been a cold peace, but Egyptian gas warmed Israeli homes and the Rafah crossing to Gaza remained closed. All that has gone now and the presidential hopefuls in the Egyptian elections later this year promise to complicate the relationship with Israel.

It’s, of course, the new situation in Egypt that brought about the Hamas-Fatah accord that’s about to change the nature of the Palestinian Authority even before the unilateral declaration of the Palestinian state.

There’re those who maintain that this can be good for the Jews. The desire to form a state that links the West Bank to Gaza opens the possibility for land swap, as hinted at in President Obama’s speech earlier this week. Such a swap might enable Israel to keep most of the settlements, as these are along the Green Line, in exchange for a highway or a tunnel or a railway that would link the two parts of a future Palestinian state.

Even before most recent developments, a man I consider to be one of the wisest in Israeli public life – the former Mossad chief Ephraim Halevy – advocated talking to Hamas without posturing about prior recognition of Israel and renunciation of violence, leaving that for the outcome of negotiations. He saw no other way then, it’s even more so now.

On the other hand, the continued intransigence of Hamas – e.g., its reported dismay at the death of Osama Bin Laden and its determined refusal to recognize Israel – makes peace unlikely. It even justifies Prime Minister Netanyahu’s contention that the issue isn’t 1967 borders but the very existence of the State of Israel. The growing significance of Nakba Day when Palestinians and their fellow-travellers mourn the establishment of Israel in 1948 points to the interpretation that they want to throw us into the sea in one form or another.  

But Palestinian intransigence is good news for Netanyahu and his right-wing cabal. It’s quite possible that Bibi & Co don’t want an agreement with the Palestinians. The Hebrew shalom (peace) is the root of the world leshalem (to pay). Yes, they all want peace but aren’t prepared to pay for it. They expect it as a gift, perhaps from right-wing evangelicals and their American supporters that would allow Israel to keep the settlements and Jerusalem.

It won’t happen. But Netanyahu may nevertheless be right when he rejects the pre-1967 borders, not because he deserves it but because Hamas may vindicate his stance. We know that his attitude hasn’t gone down well with the White House or the Quartet or other European states, but it may do better when he addresses the Republican-dominated Congress.

How should the Diaspora react to all this? American Jews who tend to see themselves as committed to the United States no less than patriotic Israelis are committed to the State of Israel are no longer prepared to let the Government of Israel determine what’s good for the Jews and what’s not. US Jewry has its own criteria and many of these diverge from official Israeli policies. Thus J-Street hailed President Obama’s latest speech as if it were written by its staff.

It’s different elsewhere in the Diaspora, not least in Canada. We’ve always been “a couple of generations behind” and thus ready to support Israel right or wrong. And because of the unequivocal commitment by Prime Minister Harper and his government to the cause of Israel as articulated by the current Israeli government, it’s very difficult for the few Jews who might share the J-Street approach to say it in public, i.e., “in front of the Gentiles.”

Nevertheless, perhaps the few who’re so inclined may want to take risks and speak not only to each other as therapy but also to others as advocacy.  

 So what of the future? A possible positive scenario is Netanyahu returning from Washington and saying to his cabinet, “Obama made me do it: we’ve to accept a two-state solution and negotiate with the Palestinians.” That may bring Kadima into the coalition and, I hope, make Yisrael Beiteinu and others withdraw.

But this may be too optimistic and hopelessly unrealistic, because any peace deal would have to be subjected to a referendum in Israel, and it’s by no means clear that it would win a majority. The removal of settlements opens the prospect of civil war and Israelis know it. They’d rather fight the Arabs than each other.

This brings me to the shocking conclusion that the realists in Israel would like to retain the status quo, however fraught and uncomfortable it is, and despite the damage this does to the country’s reputation in the world. The pessimists may have scenarios that it’s too painful even to contemplate. So here’s another ghetto attitude: when it seems difficult to be optimistic, it’s time to hope that circumstances will change miraculously and people will come to their senses.

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Rabbi Marmur is spiritual leader emeritus of Holy Blossom Temple in Toronto.  He now divides his year between Canada and Israel.  He may be contacted at dow.marmur@sdjewishworld.com