By Gary Rotto
SAN DIEGO — Imagine not only Hanukah and Christmas occurring on the same day, but also the NFL Draft Day and even the release of the FIFA Men’s World Cup draw all coinciding.
For political wonks, that is equivalent of what happened recently. Every 10 years, all levels of government must realign their boundaries to assure that there is equal representation – that all have the equal number of residents in either respective
districts. A congressional district in urban Southern California must have the same number of residents as one in rural Northeastern California. And unlike in other years, an initiative approved by Californians means that elected officials and there surrogates will not be drawing the lines.
“We Draw the Lines” as the website of the California Citizens Redistricting Commission notes, is the essence of the commission’s web address when followed by “ca.gov” So a group of regular citizens directs the map making with the help of professional state
employees, crafting districts for Congress, the State Senate, State Assembly
and Board of Equalization. The final maps must be adopted by August 15th for implementation in the Primary Elections of 2012. Usually, everyone has some sense of how the consultants, hired by the legislator, will draw the new district lines. But this new system had politics wonks from across the state on the edge of their seats, as if waiting to see who the Chargers would draft with their first round picks.
On the day the maps were released, scores of folks began the process to analyze the data. Much has been made concerning the impact on the LA area congressman from our Jewish community – Messieurs Waxman, Berman and Sherman, who represent the traditional Jewish enclaves of West LA and the San Fernando Valley. But what about Jewish officeholders San Diego?
Congressman Bob Filner represents the South County areas into the Imperial Valley. His seat does not change much, but representation of the district will as the Congressman has announced his intent to become the next mayor of San Diego. The frontrunner to succeed Filner is current State Senator Juan Vargas, who has strong ties to the Jewish community.
While pundits say that Congresswoman Susan Davis can run for re-election in either of two seats, her home is in a district that moves east and south. The current seat, which runs along the coast from Imperial Beach through coastal La Jolla and inland through Uptown, City Heights and into Lemon Grove. Davis is not likely to move from her home in Kensington, which means
that she would seek re-election in the new district that looks to extend from Hillcrest through Kensington out to La
Mesa and El Cajon, then heading south in Lemon Grove and through the Eastlake portion of Chula Vista. While the new
seat would have a majority of Democrats and an overall edge over Republican registration of 5 percentage points, the percentage of Democrats is under 50%. While most observers view this as a district that is predisposed to elect a Democrat, the margin is very different than what the Congresswoman has experienced in this decade. For the first time in many years, she will have to wage an active, aggressive, highly organized campaign to reach out to voters to secure re-election.
State Senator Marty Block has announced his intent to succeed Senator Christine Kehoe, who is leaving the legislature due to term limits. I’m going to save for a separate column the options facing Block, a former regional president of the American Jewish Committee.
A wild card is current San Diego City Councilmember Marti Emerald. Rumors have run rampant that she would run to
succeed Block, but she recently filed papers for re-election to her city council seat, which will also appear on the ballot next Spring. If she were to run for the Assembly, Emerald would probably move south in the College area to run in a newly drawn seat that looks quite a bit like the eastern part of the Davis Congressional District. This brings her into new territory outside of the City of San Diego. But this is considered a safe Democratic district, one in which Jerry Brown won with a 13 point margin. Hercurrent home in Tierrasanta appears to be in the Assembly seat of mayoral aspirant Nathan Fletcher. This district
extends up to Rancho Bernardo, encompassing only communities in the City of San Diego, but one in which Republicans enjoy a 4 point registration advantage. Barack Obama registered a 9% edge in this configuration during his presidential race so this district would be considered a tossup. Clearly, if she decided to run for the Assembly, Emerald would have an easier path running in the College Area- Eastlake district.
But while elected officials locally and across the state are filing for and angling for different seats, the line drawing has not
stopped. Wonks are waiting for another Summer holiday, July 12th, when the 2nd draft of the maps will be released. And the discussion and analysis of how any or all of the elected members of our community as well as their colleagues will fare continues anew.
It’s series of holidays that occur once every ten years and for which the gifts are priceless in many ways.
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Rotto is a freelance writer based in San Diego. He may be contacted at gary.rotto@sdjewishworld.com