By Rabbi Dow Marmur
JERUSALEM–In this week’s Likud party primaries Binyamin Netanyahu got some 75% of the votes cast by card-carrying members. The rest went to Moshe Feiglin, an extremist with considerable nuisance value but, mercifully, not much political clout. Even though more credible contenders and reputed critics within the party didn’t stand against him, and only half of those eligible voted, Netanyahu has been convincingly confirmed as party leader.
This means that, after the next general election, he’ll remain prime minister. Though there may be other, perhaps more congenial, politicians within Likud and in rival parties, they’re, alas, no electoral match for Netanyahu.
As in virtually every previous election, new political parties will emerge, this time one led by Yair Lapid and probably another by Arieh Deri. But the votes they’ll get will come mostly from disgruntled former supporters of old parties. Kadima voters are likely to go to Lapid and Shas voters to Deri. But that won’t be enough to unseat Netanyahu.
His long-time competitors are in the doldrums. The Kadima primaries scheduled for the end of next month may unseat its present leader Tzipi Livni and replace her with Shaul Mofaz whose policies don’t seem to be very different from those of Netanyahu’s. In fact, I’m among those who wouldn’t be surprised if Mofaz joins the next government whether or not he leads Kadima.
The parties of the same ilk as Likud – chiefly Yisrael Beiteinu and Shas – will also want to stay in a Netanyahu government. It’s, therefore, safe to predict that the political direction of the country will stay the same in the foreseeable future.
Not that a different government would be able to make peace with the Palestinians, because they don’t seem to be ready for serious negotiations either. But this Israeli administration will yield more and more to the settlers and thus earn the continued and escalating censure by Europe and – assuming that Obama will be re-elected in November – the US. (Canada is a remarkable exception in its uncritical support.)
The isolation in which Israel will continue to find itself will thus remain unpleasant for Israelis and Diaspora Jews alike. To ascribe the criticism to veiled anti-Semitism, as has become the fashion in many circles, is too facile a view because it ignores a much more complicated situation for which Israelis at least in part are responsible. Even those who don’t hate us may have legitimate grounds for criticizing us.
After Netanyahu’s success in allegedly helping to turn the Iranian threat into an international issue and because of the internal turmoil in the Arab world, the situation on Israel’s borders isn’t idyllic but appears to be manageable. And the crisis in Iran and the virtual civil war in Syria are rendering Hamas and Hezbollah impotent.
Like most, if not all, Conservative governments the world over, the Netanyahu administration will continue to favour big money and largely ignore the protests of the disadvantaged. It’ll turn a blind eye to the underpaid and the homeless, and take further steps to expel refugees. Yet nothing will stop it from priding itself of the country’s seemingly stable economy and the continued success of its hi-tech industry.
This may not be the ideal prospect for the next five years and more, but it’s probably a realistic one. Most Israelis have found ways of living reasonably well with the situation. The rest of the world will probably adjust, too.
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Rabbi Marmur is spiritual leader emeritus of Holy Blossom Temple in Toronto. He now divides his time between Canada and Israel and may be contacted at dow.marmur@sdjewishworld.com