By Dow Marmur
JERUSALEM — The persistent effort to groom himself as the next prime minister by Yair Lapid, the leader of the center-right Yesh Atid party, is paying off. According to a poll conducted on behalf of Israel Television’s Channel One, had elections been held in Israel today, he would have gained many more Knesset seats, mainly at the expense of Isaac Herzog’s Zionist Union.
Binyamin Netanyahu’s Likud would still remain the largest party, albeit with five seats less than its present 30. He would thus be called upon to form the next government. But the parties that currently constitute the coalition wouldn’t have enough seats between them. On the other hand, a Lapid-led government that would include Herzog and many others currently in opposition could make it.
Though Netanyahu would get more Knesset seats than any of his opponents, a majority of Israelis believe that a prime minister’s term should be limited to eight years, which, of course, is a comment on Netanyahu’s long tenure. If this became law, he wouldn’t be able to stand again. However, when those polled were asked whom they’d like to see as prime minister in Netanyahu’s place, there was no clear indication of an alternative.
Thus the dilemma of Israel today: a lot of people may be fed up with the present coalition and its leader but not many can think of someone else to take over. This suggests that the present government is there to stay for the next few years, despite occasional threats to break up the coalition.
A main reason for the impasse may be Netanyahu’s image as the staunch defender of Israel’s security against its many enemies. Polls indicate that Jewish Israelis want to distance themselves as much as they can not only from the Palestinians in the territories but also from country’s Arab citizens. Netanyahu’s policies seem to reflect this view. The growth of Naftali Bennett’s Habayit Hayehudi – which, incidentally would also gain seats had an election been held now, probably taking most of them from Likud – and its commitment to the settlements and their expansion is another manifestation of this trend. Israel has turned right in a big way.
Even Herzog, still formally the leader of the opposition, appears to have given up on peace negotiations with the Palestinians. He’s now advocating so-called confidence building measures in preparation for a time more conducive to peace making. It may be sensible but it’s too tame a stance for someone expected to advocate a viable alternative to the present government.
Prime Minister Netanyahu’s greatest asset may be – Iran. Though the nuclear deal seems to have discredited him and his staunch Republican stance, Iran’s recent launch of long-range missiles with Hebrew inscriptions telling Israelis for whom they’re intended will further strengthen the resolve of the majority in Israel to stick with Netanyahu in the belief that he can protect us better than any other politician – and that despite recent pronouncements from Israeli army high-ups that the Iran deal may not be as bad as presented by the prime minister.
In other words: very little is likely to change around here in the foreseeable future. We’ll continue to grumble, even be outraged, but fail to offer viable alternatives. We’ll console ourselves that despite the uncertainties and the continued terror attacks that take lives on both sides, Israel seems to be doing better than perhaps ever before economically, culturally and even diplomatically.
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Rabbi Marmur is spiritual leader emeritus of Holy Blossom Temple in Toronto. Now a resident of Israel, he may be contacted via dow.marmur@sdjewishworld.com. Comments intended for publication in the space below must be accompanied by the letter writer’s first and last name and by his/ her city and state of residence (city and country for those outside the U.S.)