By Howard Wayne
SAN DIEGO — The 2018 elections will determine what legislative actions can be taken over the next term, and will set the stage for the 2020 presidential race. All seats in the House of Representatives and more than a third of the seats in the Senate are up for grabs.
Background: An Unpopular Minority President
In 2016 the two major party candidates for president had ratings that were underwater – more voters had unfavorable views of them than favorable ones. The winner in the Electoral College lost the popular election by nearly 3 million votes, only the second time that has happened in more that 120 years (but the second time in the past five presidential cycles). The election was held in the course of a dramatic economic improvement from the 2008 recession, a stock market that was up and unemployment that was down, and a nation, while still involved in two-and-a-half wars, was not consumed by them. What happened?
The upturn in the economy obscured the fact it was uneven. Most of the gains went to the top 5% and many, particularly the white working class in the Rust Belt, felt left behind as the United States continued to de-industrialize and social pathologies multiplied. Racial antagonism lingered, cultural conservatives felt threatened by social changes and the Democratic candidate embodied the establishment status quo. It was a situation tailor-made for a disruptive candidate like Donald Trump.
What has happened since then? Trump’s favorability rating remains underwater. The economy and the stock market continue to do well and the unemployment rate is at a near 50-year low. Trump has rewarded his wealthy donors with a tax bill that delivers most of its proceeds to large corporations and the economic elite. He weakened the Affordable Care Act by removing the individual mandate to purchase insurance. Trump has kept his promise to fundamentalists by packing the courts with judges who are likely to hollow-out, if not undo, the right to abortion. Almost out of sight, Trump has gutted worker and environmental protections. Working class people have not benefited, but Trump continues to deliver rhetorical red meat.
The policies and the politics of the Trump era will be before the voters this year. What does that political battlefield look like?
The Struggle for the House of Representatives
The Republicans planned to campaign this year on their tax bill, but the results in special elections have shown the voters are not buying it. Large corporations, instead of investing in equipment to create new jobs, have mainly used the tax benefits to repurchase their own stock, thus increasing the share value for the insiders who run them. Bonuses paid to workers have been one-offs. The limitations on deductions for mortgage interest and on state and local taxes mean that many taxpayers in states like California and New York are likely to pay more in taxes, which is a kind of pay-back for their votes for Hillary Clinton.
The good economy also may not pay dividends to Republican candidates. Remember, the second quarter GNP growth in 2014 – about the same as the second quarter increase this year – did not prevent the Democrats from losing House seats or their control of the Senate that year. Maybe “it’s the economy, stupid” only works when the economy is bad.
Usually the party holding the presidency loses House seats in the mid-term elections. Abetting that head wind for the GOP is the unpopularity of Trump, growing concerns over climate change and gun violence, increasing economic inequality and the Republican efforts to repeal the now-popular Affordable Care Act. Educated white women are particularly disaffected from Trump and are realigning with the Democrats.
Trump will try to distract voters from his actual policies by attacking immigrants and trade deals, name-calling, trying to reprise his race against Hillary Clinton, and dog whistle signals in the form of condemning NFL players. But have no doubts, Trump is a master marketer and there is an audience for his attacks.
To take control of the House Democrats need to pick up a net of 23 House seats. Coincidentally, there are 23 districts represented by Republican that were won by Clinton in 2016 (Democrats represent 12 districts carried by Trump). Notably, seven of those seats are in California. In addition, a court-required redistricting in Pennsylvania looks likely to create at least two more Democratic-leaning districts.
Current polling shows a generic preference for Democrats of about 10%. Democrats will need every one of those percentage points if they are going to win because of both clustering of Democratic voters into urban areas and a vast Republican gerrymander following the 2010 census that produced a GOP House in every subsequent election. In 2012 Democrats won more than a one million vote plurality in House elections, which earned them 201 out of 435 seats.
Democrats have other advantages. About 40 Republican House members have retired this year rather than face voters, only a few of whom are seeking other offices. A fired-up Democratic base has provided both large financial contributions to House candidates as well as enthusiastic voters. The House battle will be fought in the suburbs. That is not the Trump base. Democrats seem poised to take control of the House. But as always, anything can happen.
The Senate Map
Unlike the House, only a portion of the Senate seats are up for election, and those elections will not be in every state. Superficially it seems simple for Democrats to take control of the Senate because they only need to gain a net of two seats, but that is an illusion. The Senate map of seats up in 2018 favors the GOP.
Ten Democratic Senators are running for re-election in states carried by Donald Trump – and half of those are in states Trump carried by 10 percentage points or more. In contrast, only one Republican Senator is running in a state carried by Clinton – Nevada – where he is running against synagogue leader Jackie Rosen. The five double-digit Trump states are Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana and West Virginia, and, not surprisingly, those Democratic senators have received much of Trump’s flack. Democratic Senators from two other Trump states, Florida and Ohio, are also in tough races.
Democrats could take control of the Senate by re-electing everyone one of their endangered incumbents (doubtful) and taking Republican Senate seats in Nevada and the open seat in Arizona that Jeff Flake is relinquishing. To offset the loss of incumbents Democrats would need to win Tennessee, where they are underdogs, and Texas, which seems like a bridge too far.
Democrats will have had a good election night if they hold their own, or limit their net loss to one seat.
Post November 6 Election
The election is likely to produce split control of Congress. This will provide the check on President Trump that many voters desperately desire. But with the Senate still in Republican hands, Trump can continue to put through controversial nominees without consideration of comity. Look for the action in 2019-2020 to be over judicial nominations, particularly if there is another vacancy on the Supreme Court. Also look for Trump to nominate regulators who are hostile to the mission of their agencies.
In January Democrats will begin to announce for president. We can expect a large field and a debate platform resembling the GOP’s in 2015-2016. One or two Republicans may decide to fight for the soul of the GOP by challenging Trump. It appears daunting – as bad as Trump’s numbers are overall, he is highly popular with Republicans (this reflects the polarization of the United States). Any Republican challenger may pay a steep price, so likely opponents are those with little to lose (Kasich, Flake, but not Rubio).
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Wayne, a Democrat, is a former three-term member of the California State Assembly.