JERUSALEM — The days before Monday’s balloting were as sleazy as any I recall, from watching Israeli elections since 1977.
Bibi led the negative campaigning, bringing up issues against all the major figures in Blue and White that had been settled years ago, and charging Benny Gantz with faults up to incipient senility.
Blue and White’s campaign pictured Turkey’s President Erdogan, speaking Bibi’s mantra against the charges of corruption, “There won’t be anything because there is nothing.” However, Blue and White’s campaign seemed mostly mild, repeating charges against Bibi, but not getting the air time that Bibi did.
Polls shows an increase in Bibi’s vote, mostly with a small lead over Blue and White, but short of the 61 that would give him control of the Knesset.
And Avigdor Lieberman still held the balance, and was speaking about becoming the Prime Minister, as well as continuing an anti-Bibi, but pro-Likud posture.
With plenty of confusion, and basically a tied score, as well as some question about the voting of several thousand people kept in their homes due to the coronavirus, and whether a fear of it would keep others from the polls.
The Coronavirus is competing well with politics for our news space.
Israel has joined the list of countries with victims, but not yet on the list of those whose citizens have died.
The Health and Interior Ministries have ordered residents coming from China, Japan, Thailand, Singapore, and now Italy to remain in house confinement for two weeks. Visitors from those countries have been turned back at the border. The Health Ministry has urged Israelis to cancel flights that are not essential. El Al and other airlines have cancelled flights, and pictures of Ben Gurion Airport seem largely empty. The Foreign Ministry has coped with complaints from various countries about turned back tourists and closed borders.
The country seems to be in full panic, compared to what we are hearing from other centers of outbreak. However, that may reflect the character of our borders, and the possibility of closing ourselves off–more or less–from land travel coming from elsewhere.
We’re wondering about how serious is the disease, along with numerous other questions about its transmission. And about the government’s responsibility for helping El Al and other tourist-oriented companies.
El Al has dismissed about a thousand employees. Arkia has also dismissed personnel.
As Spring approaches we’re hoping that the nasty virus will die.
But meanwhile, the US stock market dropped by more than 15 percent in the last month, while the Tel Aviv index has dropped by more than 18 percent. Now both seem to be recovering, a bit, of those losses.
Uncertainties prevail. With China a major supplier, we’re wondering about the import of raw materials and finished products, as well as the arrival of workers who do much of what happens in the construction of housing and infrastructure. And what about the supply of Purim costumes?
There’s also a worry about the voting by several thousand Israelis kept in home isolation for two weeks, due to coming from infected areas. The government urges them not to use public transportation, but has arranged several “clean” voting places throughout the country.
How will the disease affect the election? Will Likudniks be more inclined to stay at home than supporters of Blue and White? And there are tens of thousands of Israelis staying in Israel rather than travelling. How many of them will vote? And for who?
Among our concerns.
The last pre-election polls showed either a tie between Blue and White and Likud, or a slight lead for Likud. But with neither having easy access to the 61 seats needed to form a government. And the most recent interviews have been screeches, with all the candidates seeming to be on edge, and Naftali Bennett walking away from one television interview.
A fourth election? A presidential choice of some Likudnik other than Bibi? A court decision that an indicted and on-trial Bibi cannot continue as Prime Minister?
Initial results look like a victory for Bibi. Pretty much like his friend Donald Trump won in 2016. It wasn’t a clean campaign, but it worked.
But, so far, his coalition hasnot reached a sure 61 seat majority.
It’s not over. There’ll be a period of negotiations, and a potential for some mandates in the center to slip over to Likud. As well as the court case, the possibility of Bibi getting judicial immunity from the Knesset, and the onset of his court case. Can there be a court case against Bibi heading the next government? With his so-called electoral victory, the prospect seems remote.
But his victory has not reached 61 seats for his bloc. Currently it’s at 59 seats, with final results perhaps several days from now.
And where is the Israeli left?
The combination of Labor and Meretz won 7 seats. Five years ago, the combination of Meretz and Zionist Union (with a Labor base) won 32 seats.
And while Likud activists are claiming victory, they haven’t reached a Knesset majority. Likud has topped Blue and White, but there is a lot left to do. And maybe a fourth election.
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Ira Sharkansky, Ph.D., is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com