By Ira Sharkansky, Ph.D
JERUSALEM — It’s Pesach. And Ramadan. It’s also Easter, but the Christians here are below the line of violence, and all is peaceful as far as they are concerned.
There has been some killing. Two sisters gunned down in the Jordan Valley, with their mother in a very serious condition. And a car ramming in Tel Aviv killed an Italian tourist and injured a number of others. Arguments as to whether the Tel Aviv incident was terror or a faulty auto.
Compared to Jewish history, so far the toll is modest. Of course we remember the deaths, and their families. But put in historical context the numbers remain small.
There’s also been firing from Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, plus expected responses from the IDF.
All told, efforts to keep the level below what is likely to produce an escalation.
And domestically, we’re in a waiting period till the end of the month. But demonstrations continue, meant to remind Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Bibi) to keep judicial and other reforms within reason.
Pesach may be contributing its own quiet, along with religious Jews doing what they can to visit and pray on the Temple Mount.
The country is operating on something less than a full tank.
Itamar Ben-Gvir is causing trouble by visits to the Temple Mount and leaking what might have been private conversations with the Police Chief. We hear from insiders that Ben-Gvir is brighter and more moderate than party colleagues, but all told, he’s a pest.
Bezalel Smotrich has declared that there are no Palestinian people, and that the security situation is untenable. On this he seems to agree with Ben-Gvir, and has produced an angry response from the Prime Minister. Signs of a weakening coalition? They’ve been there for a while. It’s not something Bibi created, but was created for him.
Justice Minister Yoav Levin admits that the reform he promoted would work against Israeli democracy, but claims that he has fixed it.
Simcha Rothman, the head of the Knesset Judiciary Committee, has proposed a revised scheme to select Supreme Court Justices. It appears less extreme than previous versions, but action will wait until the end of the holidays and the reconvening of the Knesset.
Meanwhile, polls are showing that Israelis have had enough. If Israel were to hold elections now, Netanyahu’s Likud party would garner just 20 Knesset seats, compared to the 32 it won in November. Benny Gantz’s National Unity Party would be the biggest winner, taking 29 Knesset seats – more than double the 12 seats it currently holds. The second largest would be former Prime Minister Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party, with 21 seats.
The current coalition, with 64 Knesset seats, would fall to 46, and the group of opposition parties that made up the previous government would get a 64-seat majority instead. Fifty-one percent of respondents picked Benny Gantz as Prime Minister, compared to the 34 percent who preferred Netanyahu. When asked to choose between Lapid and Netanyahu, 41 percent supported Lapid, and just 37 picked the current prime minister.