By Rabbi Dr. Michael Leo Samuel in Chula Vista, California
Sometimes I think President Trump genuinely thinks he is Monty Hall, treating one of the most volatile geopolitical crises of our time like an episode of Let’s Make a Deal. The entire premise of that show relies on a host dangling a quick, shiny payout to entice contestants into trading away their leverage, playing entirely on short-term impulse and an appetite for a quick gamble.
By approaching the Iranian regime with this exact mindset, Trump behaves as though decades of deep-seated theological fervor, regional subversion, and nuclear ambition can be resolved simply by finding a transactional middle ground. It treats a fanatical, apocalyptic regime not as an existential threat to be decisively dismantled, but as a difficult business partner holding out for a better contract.
The catastrophic danger of this “Monty Hall diplomacy” is that the mullahs are not desperate contestants looking for a modest deal; they are seasoned ideologues who view American eagerness to negotiate as a profound sign of weakness and fatigue. While Trump searches for the theatrical breakthrough—the historic handshake or the dramatic signing ceremony—Tehran uses the resulting pauses, ceasefires, and sanctions relief to pocket concrete economic lifelines.
They take the cash, rebuild their depleted proxy networks, and suppress internal dissent, all while running out the clock. In the end, this transactionalism trades away critical strategic leverage and the security of millions just to see what is behind “Door Number Three,” only to find a rejuvenated, double-dealing adversary that is more dangerous than before.
President Donald Trump, who positioned himself as a champion against the Iranian regime, has, in effect, abandoned the Iranian people through a reckless mix of inflammatory rhetoric and subsequent diplomatic retreat. By publicly encouraging Iranians to protest and “reclaim their country,” Trump indirectly contributed to one of the bloodiest crackdowns in modern Iranian history, with death toll estimates reaching 35,000 to 45,000. He bears partial responsibility for these deaths.
Rather than capitalizing on the momentum to dismantle the mullahs’ grip, Trump pivoted to deal-making, propping up the regime with potential sanctions relief and shackling Israel’s right to self-defense. This failure to finish the job ensures Iran will resume its dangerous, self-destructive path, threatening to engulf the entire region in chaos.
In late 2025 and early 2026, as economic collapse fueled nationwide protests, Trump issued direct calls to action. On Truth Social and in public statements, he urged “Iranian Patriots” to “KEEP PROTESTING — TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!!” and declared “HELP IS ON ITS WAY.” He warned the regime against killing demonstrators, threatened military intervention, and told Iranians to remember the names of abusers for future accountability.
These messages, amplified globally, emboldened protesters who took to the streets demanding freedom from theocratic oppression. For a brief period, it appeared Trump understood the regime’s vulnerability after years of maximum pressure and joint strikes that had degraded its nuclear sites and proxies.
The response from Tehran was merciless. Security forces, including the IRGC and imported militias, unleashed a brutal crackdown, particularly in early January 2026. Reports documented massacres in cities across Iran, with bodies piling up in morgues and hospitals overwhelmed. Independent estimates from human rights groups, doctors’ networks, and exile sources placed the death toll between 30,000 and over 36,500, with some figures climbing toward 45,000 when accounting for underreported cases amid internet blackouts and reprisals. Thousands more were injured or arrested.
Trump’s encouragement, while morally resonant to opponents of the regime, gave protesters false hope of imminent American support that never fully materialized. When the regime fired indiscriminately and imposed curfews, the promised “help” amounted to rhetoric followed by negotiation. In this sense, Trump is partly responsible for these deaths: his words escalated participation in a revolt that the U.S. was unwilling or unable to protect.
This abandonment deepened as Trump prioritized a “deal.” Indirect talks, mediated through channels like Oman, focused on sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and limited nuclear concessions. Even after devastating U.S.-Israeli strikes that eliminated key figures including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Trump extended ceasefires and signaled openness to economic lifelines.
Any sanctions relief injects funds into the regime’s coffers, allowing it to pay enforcers, rebuild capabilities, and suppress future dissent. Iranian opposition voices condemned this as betrayal, arguing that negotiations legitimize the mullahs at the expense of civilians who risked everything following Trump’s calls. Ordinary Iranians—already suffering inflation, repression, and isolation—now face a regime rejuvenated by partial Western accommodation rather than isolated and crumbling.
Compounding the betrayal is Trump’s interference with Israel’s right to defend itself. In June 2026, as Iran defied ceasefires with renewed missile attacks, Trump pressured Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to exercise restraint, reportedly warning that unchecked action could leave Israel isolated. This shackling ignores the existential threat posed by the Islamic Republic, which has long vowed to erase Israel from the map.
By restraining Israel’s military response—preventing the full destruction of remaining nuclear remnants, command centers, and terror infrastructure—Trump forgets a fundamental lesson of history: weakness invites aggression. A shackled Israel signals vulnerability to Tehran, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and their backers in Russia and China. Enemies view restraint not as prudent diplomacy but as fatigue, emboldening further attempts at conquest through attrition, rockets, tunnels, and proxies.
Israel’s security has always depended on proactive defense, not U.S.-dictated pauses. Past episodes of measured responses after provocations only allowed adversaries to rearm and strike harder. Trump’s actions risk turning a decisive window—post-strikes and amid regime weakness—into prolonged danger.
A constrained Israel faces demographic, economic, and moral erosion from endless low-level wars. This policy not only endangers the Jewish state but destabilizes the broader region, as Iranian proxies exploit perceived American-Israeli hesitation to expand influence in Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and beyond.
The consequences of failing to finish the job are catastrophic. Iran’s regime, though battered, retains ideological fervor, smuggling networks, and alliances that enable rapid recovery. A premature deal without total dismantlement of enrichment programs, ballistic missiles, and terror sponsorship will fuel resurgence. Tehran will resume its apocalyptic course: nuclear breakout attempts, shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz (critical for global energy), and export of revolution. The region risks renewed proxy wars, oil price shocks, refugee surges, and escalation that could draw in major powers.
Iranian civilians, the primary victims of the mullahs’ corruption and brutality, will endure prolonged suffering as economic relief props up their oppressors instead of empowering change.
Trump’s “America First” instincts against endless wars are understandable in principle. However, in Iran’s case, half-measures—encouraging revolt, then retreating to transactionalism—prove more dangerous.
Rhetorical support rings hollow when followed by deals that grant legitimacy. Protests that could have toppled the theocracy became leverage for negotiations rather than a supported pathway to liberation. By not sustaining maximum pressure or backing Israel’s full operations, Trump effectively abandoned those who heeded his call, leaving 35-45,000 dead as a tragic testament to unfulfilled promises.
True support for the Iranian people requires accountability: verifiable denuclearization, proxy withdrawal, human rights benchmarks, and no relief until irreversible weakening. Trump should amplify dissident voices, maintain sanctions, and allow Israel to neutralize threats without handcuffs. Only by eliminating the regime’s capacity for blackmail can stability emerge.
The Iranian people deserved more than encouragement followed by abandonment. They rose at great cost, inspired partly by American words, only to face betrayal at the negotiating table. Israel deserves unhindered self-defense to deter conquest. Without resolve to finish what maximum pressure began, Iran will regroup, resume its destructive trajectory, and drag the Middle East—and potentially beyond—into greater conflict. Trump’s deal-making risks trading short-term optics for long-term catastrophe. The blood of tens of thousands and the security of millions hang in the balance. History will judge this pivot harshly if the region burns as a result.
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Rabbi Dr. Michael Leo Samuel is spiritual leader of Temple Beth Shalom in Chula Vista, California.