By Rabbi Dean Kertesz in Richmond, California
The voting in Israel has concluded and some clear trends have emerged.
- The right took a beating. No matter how Bibi tries to spin it his government was punished at the polls. Likud fell from 32 seats in the last Knesset to 27. Where those votes went is not yet clear. But they did not go to the messianic/settler parties who also lost a seat. Shas, the Mizrachi, Haredi party lost four seats, a particularly bad showing.
- Bibi made a great comeback, but Israeli voters still punished him for October 7th. Don’t count him out yet. He is a resilient politician and Likud remains the dominant political party in Israel.
- The Israeli political center of gravity is secular and center right. If you add up Likud (27 seats), Yashar! (21 seats), B’Yachad (12 seats), and Yisrael Beyteinu (7 seats) you have a solid 67 seat majority without the settler or the ultra Orthodox parties. If you add in The Democrats, a center-left party so a bit of a stretch, you have 74 seats, representing sixty percent of Israeli Jewish voters.
- The Arab vote carries weight when Arabs vote. The two Arab parties, the Joint List made up of Hadash (the joint Jewish/Arab Israeli Communist Party) Ta’al (a secular Arab nationalist party) and Balad (a Palestinian nationalist party) won 12 votes making it the third largest winner overall. Ra’am won 7 seats, the same number as every ultra-Orthodox or settler party. Collectively they have 16% of the seats in the Knesset which is pretty close to the 20% of the population they represent. They could be king makers, if they choose to be.
Paths to a government:
As of today, the only way the current ruling coalition can form a government is if Bibi can peel 8 votes away from the opposition bloc. It’s not impossible, but highly improbable that anyone in the opposition will help Bibi remain in power. To bolt is probably political suicide. Second, he can’t go into government with an Arab party because neither his partners on the extreme right or the Arab parties will serve together. But never say never with Bibi.
The secular, Zionist center-right is, and remains, the axis of Israeli politics. Ariel Sharon realized this in 2005 when he left Likud to form Kadima and engineer the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Twenty years later the center still holds. Israeli politics may seem divided, but Israeli voters aren’t that far apart. Large majorities support appointing an independent commission of inquiry into the October 7th debacle (71%), drafting ultra-Orthodox men (72%), and reassessing Judicial reform or creating a constitution (58%).
Here are two scenarios on how a governing coalition might be formed.
Number one. Imagine if Gadi Eisenkot said this tomorrow, “For far too long we have been governed by the politics of division and hatred, of turning Jew against Jew, and Israeli Jew against Israeli Arab. It is time for us to come together politically the same way we came together as a people on October 8th. We need national unity to address our nation’s problems: military service for all, an end to political corruption, judicial reform that strengthens democracy and respect for the law, an honest and objective inquiry into the failings, governmental, intelligence, and military, that led to October Seventh. Our problems are too serious. To meet them we need a government that represents the vast Zionist majority.
Fifty years ago, before another election Menachim Begin reminded us that regardless of our background we are one people. In that spirit I invite the Likud to join me and the other secular Zionist parties to form a broad secular government of national unity. But there is one condition: there will be no rotating prime-minister. I respect Bibi and his contributions to our country. He has many achievements. But he also has many failures: primary among them is October 7th and its continued impact on our country. He has led us for 20 years. We thank him for his service, but it is time for new leadership. Bibi can lead Likud, but I will lead the government. He can be part of our coalition in any ministry, but not as prime-minister or defense minister. These are my conditions. They are honest, they are fair, they are right, and they are in the interest of the people of the State of Israel. Together we must move forward in strength.”
Would it work? It might, because it appeals to both the professionals in Tel Aviv, who are the engine of Israel’s new economy, as well as the taxi driver in Bat Yam and the electrician in Bet Sha’an who form the beating heart of the Likud. Further, it changes the narrative from being about Bibi to being about Israel and its future. It speaks to the Zionist ideal that still animates many Israelis. Most are tired of the politics of division. They know what it means to come together to defend the state and they also know that division makes them vulnerable to outside attack.
Scenario number two. Can the Israeli Arab political parties make a positive play to be included in the next government? Are Yousuf Jabareen and Mansour Abbas willing to condemn Hamas and all attempts to destroy the State of Israel and commit to being full supporters of the state and participants in Israeli society? That is the price of inclusion in government.
What if they hold a press conference and say, “The high voter turnout among Arab citizens of the State of Israel shows that our commitment to this country is real and the time for our full inclusion is now. We are citizens of the State of Israel. We have lived together for 78 years. We have our problems and our conflicts but we, Arab Israelis, are fully committed to this country. We condemn and oppose all forms of terrorism, Arab and Jewish. We want the same thing every citizen of this country wants: safe towns and villages, the opportunity to build a good life for ourselves and our families, freedom to live our lives as we wish, respect for our culture and traditions, as we respect yours, and national safety and security. We are not going anywhere and neither are you. It is time for us to find a way to live together, fully as one nation made up of different peoples as promised in Israel’s declaration of independence. Remember, Israeli Arabs were murdered on October 7th too. We are bound together, not just by citizenship but by blood. In that spirit we are ready to join any coalition that respects the rights and aspirations of all Israeli citizens.”
I’d like to think that no secular Israeli political party could turn away from an offer like that. Maybe I’m naive. Perhaps, Abbas and Jabareen can’t or won’t say such words. But full commitment to Israel is the price of full participation. Such a statement won’t end anti-Arab racism, nor will it immediately assuage the fears that Israeli Arabs are a fifth column who want to destroy Israel. But reconciliation has to start somewhere and a statement like that would be a powerful beginning.
I don’t know if either of these scenarios will come to pass. It requires stepping across some wide gaps and rejecting the politics of division for the politics of unity. But the numbers don’t lie. Israeli voters are centrist, a call to the center could work. Israeli Arabs will be better off if their leaders fully participate in Israeli politics and society. Other countries may be able to indulge in a politics of division but Israel can’t afford that. Certainly not now. I’d like to hope that Israel’s leaders can rise to the moment,
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Rabbi Dean Kertesz is rabbi emeritus at Temple Beth Hillel, in Richmond, California. He taught modern Jewish history and rabbinics at the Jewish Community High School of the Bay in San Francisco for 15 years.