JERUSALEM — Bibi Netanyahu and Donald Trump both are in political and legal trouble.
Parallels? Yes, to a considerable degree.
Both at the top, and both are reeling on the edge.
Can they help one another?
Perhaps with favorable comments. But both are subject to local pressures likely to overcome such goodies.
Procedures differ greatly in the two countries.
Donald seems to be protected by the Constitutional process of impeachment.
That requires a regular vote in the House of Representatives to impeach, or to accuse.
Then a trial in the Senate, with a requirement for a two-thirds majority to vote guilty and to put him out of office.
Would he then be open to criminal charges? Perhaps, but it’s never happened, and it’ll be a hard slug to get a guilty vote in the Senate controlled by the President’s party.
Bibi is subject to the regular judicial process, sort of. Except that–unlike other ministers, the Prime Minister needn’t resign if indicted.
And concerns about proceeding against a sitting Prime Minister has dragged out the process of police inquiries, then consideration by the prosecutor, to a course of years, and not yet completed.
We’re now hearing that the prosecutor, i.e., the Attorney General or Legal Adviser to the Government, will finish with his deliberations by the end of the month, and is likely to produce three indictments.
But the virtual tie between Bibi’s team and opponents in the recent two elections is keeping Bibi in the Prime Minister’s Office, where he can sit out the indictments, and then a trial, and perhaps an appeal.
We can guess the process will take at least a couple of years.
Guesses are the Benny Gantz will not succeed in forming a government, and that there’ll be another election. Perhaps in February or March, and most likely producing results similar to those of the preceding two elections.
So on and on?
It’s not clear, but we’ll see.
Donald’s problems are several. He’s the first to reach the Presidency without former experience in government or politics. And he doesn’t behave presidentially.
His style of speech more closely resembles what we can imagine for a working class bar. And while he has acquired support in Israel for moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing Israeli control of the Golan, and putting a cluster of Orthodox Jews in control of his Deal of the Century, so far not released for public examination, he’s also been accused of getting too close to those not friendly with Jews in the US.
Prominent in the efforts to impeach was his approach to the government of Ukraine to help him with respect to a prominent Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, via Biden’s son. There are also long standing efforts to get his tax returns public, an embarrassing pull out of Syria, for the sake of Turkey and at the expense of America’s allies Kurds, the contents of the Mueller inquiry, numerous allegations about Donald’s mixing of business and politics, plus more than a few stories of sexual dalliances.
There seems to be enough to satisfy the Constitutional requirement about “high crimes and misdemeanors,” and maybe bribery, but the process is more political than judicial, and there remains the Republican majority in the Senate.
If he is impeached, but not found guilty in the Senate, will there be enough of a blot to limit his chance for re-election?
Now we should be pondering the list of Democrats running against him, with the leaders all about as old as Trump, and their dim chances of getting more votes than Trump in the Electoral College..
Latest in the fray is another aged billionaire, Michael Bloomberg. At the age of 77, he seems to be making 70 the age for contenders. He comes as a former Mayor of New York City and with other skills, with lots of money, along with being a Jew. We’ll see how this goes.
The cases against Bibi are three. One concerns his receipt of large gifts in exchange for services, another his efforts to deal with the publisher of Yedioth Aharonoth to increase his support or limit his opposition in that paper, in exchange for his limiting the distribution of Israel Hayom, a free paper owned by prominent Bibi supporter Sheldon Adelson, and the third concerns Bibi’s favorable treatment of phone company Bezeq’s chief, in exchange for favorable treatment in Bezeq’s news publication.
More recently Minister of Justice Ohana has weighed in again, this time against the police investigation of a man who once worked closely with Bibi, and has since become a witness against him. Ohana revealed, from the platform of the Knesset, incidents in the investigation that had been labeled forbidden to publicize.
When questioned, Ohana claimed that he didn’t know about what was forbidden to publicize; and that the information had already been made public.
The Prime Minister claimed that he didn’t know what Ohana was about to say. And if you believe that, there’s a bridge connecting Manhattan with Brooklyn, that you might want to buy.
Will Ohana be protected by the discretion allowed to a Knesset Member?
Now Bibi has appointed a long time nemesis NaftalI Bennett as Minister of Defense. Bennett has long wanted the job, and has been opposed by Sara. His appointment indicates yet again Bibi’s desperation, and his willingness to do what may work to keep his block together.
And Ayelet Shaked, along with Bennett, has been accepted into an alliance with Likud. This is something that Sara strongly objected to, so Bibi’s desperation as Prime Minister may be affecting his home life.
Still to be decided, and likely to be difficult, will be the Knesset’s removal of Bibi’s protection from a judicial process. Protection applies to all Knesset Members, and most–except for the Prime Minister–find that protection taken away when indicted. We’ll see what happens to Bibi.
Avigdor Lieberman has offered an ultimatum to both major parties, demanding they accept the President’s suggestion of seven weeks ago, with Bibi giving up his alliance with the ultra-Orthodox. Lieberman says that he would join with the party that accepted his offer.
So far, neither has indicated a simple acceptance.
Now we hear that the IDF killed a leader of Jihad in Gaza, and school has been cancelled and other measures implemented to protect against expected retaliation throughout vulnerable areas of Israel.
Some may be asking if the timing is linked to Bibi’s political problems, and the possibility of Gantz aligning with Israeli Arabs. Just yesterday Bibi said that Gantz’s alliance with the Arab List was a slap in the face of IDF’s soldiers.
It’s turning into a tough week.
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Ira Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com