HAIFA, Israel — Despite a strong turnout for the Right, Israel is still facing a looming political stalemate. However, it’s not completely deja vu all over again as Israel’s third election in a little over a year did manage to produce some interesting trends. Dr. Ehud Eiran, University of Haifa’s Senior Lecturer in Political Science, held a briefing this week where he broke down this election’s most compelling revelations. Below are some highlights from that conversation:
Are we where we were last September? Or are there differences between this current political logjam?
There are some differences. This time, Netanyahu is facing trial for corruption allegations on March 17. Despite that, he was able to bring in more seats than the last two elections. Another interesting development is the rise of the Arab vote, which now has 15 seats. But, generally, we are where we were before, yes.
How does Netanyahu’s looming legal troubles impact the election?
The next battle for Netanyahu will take place in the legal arena. Testimony can start in the late summer or early fall. This election is not just about leadership or vision, but about Netanyahu himself and his survival as a free person. He seems to think being tried as a prime minister will give him a better chance of being acquitted or will enable him to subvert the legal process. I don’t think this will affect his ability to cobble together a coalition. Those in his bloc are committed to being with him despite his legal situation. The support we see for Netanyahu indicates not just support for him but disdain for Israel’s entire judicial system.
What did Netanyahu do right this time around?
Likud employed very effective on the ground work this time and expertly used big data in a way that was similar to Barack Obama in the 2012 US election. For the first time in a long time, Netanyahu saw a real challenger within the Likud – Gidon Sa’ar. This forced Netanyahu to revisit and reconnect with party activists and he was able to energize his base during the Likud primary in December. Finally, Likud used some dirty tactics like doctored videos and rumors against Blue and White’s Benny Gantz which worked quite well.
Defying media speculation, Israelis flocked to the polls with the highest voter turnout since 1999. How do you explain that?
The participation of Israel’s Arab citizens was truly remarkable. In the last election, they only nabbed ten seats. Almost a year later, they jumped to 14-15 seats. This is one of the adverse effects of the Trump peace plan, which included the transfer of some Arab villages to the proposed future state of Palestine. This was a rallying force for them. Additionally, Netanyahu was able to turn out his base with a powerful media campaign and use of technology. And, finally, this is a more anecdotal reason that I heard from family and friends: many people wanted to get this over with hoping that they wouldn’t have to go to a fourth election. There’s also, of course, the Corona effect. Elections in Israel are a day off and many people go abroad. Because of the Corona outbreak, many chose not to do that, leaving them able to stay and vote.
How does Netanyahu get to 61 seats? Is this even possible?
We’re still waiting for soldiers’ votes, which will probably favor the Right-wing bloc. Likud could also encourage MKs from the other bloc to defect and join their side – there are a few potential candidates that they may want to approach. The second option is to agree on some sort of national unity government. There is always the possibility of a fourth election, but it seems this time, politicians are committed to stopping that from happening.
Considering the relatively high voter turnout for Arabs, do you see this election as an indication that they’ll further become involved in Israeli political life?
I think we’re seeing two conflicting trends with Arab-Israelis. On the one hand, their participation is growing. But, on the other hand, you have both Netanyahu and Gantz vowing that they will not sit in a coalition with the Arab parties. This is not ethnic, this is mostly a representation of the specific ideals of these parties that largely object to Zionism and Israel being a Jewish state.
However, the Arab parties were effective in reaching out to Jewish voters, including holding meetings in Jewish communities. Also, they are holding some serious political sway. We now know that Netanyahu negotiated with the most extreme Islamist elements of the party to see if they could support him in some way. So this combination of good politics and cultural shift will, in my view, make them more of an influential aspect of Israel’s political system.
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Dr. Ehud Eiran is an Associate Professor of International Relations, in the School of Political Science at the University of Haifa and a visiting scholar, Department of Political Science, Stanford University.