By Ira Sharkansky, Ph.D
JERUSALEM — A half hour before the end of his mandate, Yair Lapid announced to the President the formation of a government.
It’s something of a mess. Eight or nine parties, or portions of parties. Still some issues having to be sorted out. And Bibi is not going quietly, to be head of the opposition, accused of three crimes, and in a trial that may last for years, or until there’s an agreement about a plea bargain.
The parties who are members of what’s been created are not, for the most part, really parties, in the sense of having clear ideologies; supporters; and traditions. Most are groupings around charismatic individuals, with slight nuanced differences in what they preach. More egos than actual political organizations.
That trait has helped in the pragmatic bargaining. This party gets this; another party gets that; sensitive positions are divided, with one party getting it for two years and another party getting it for another two years.
Naftali Bennett has parlayed his few seats in the Knesset to be named the first Prime Minister. Presumably, he’ll keep the job for two years. And if the government lasts that long, Yair Lapid will take his place.
The only real issue has been Bibi. What’s been created has been called a government of change. And facing it is Bibi, with his vicious speeches and actions to get loyal supporters to be even more vicious in their opposition.
There have been loud demonstrations, with individuals opposed to the prospective new government, calling on traditional themes of expanding settlement and opposition to working with Arabs. Lots of young people, presumably from the West Bank, egged on by individuals craving for Bibi’s political survival, their own ideology, or whatever moves them to demonstrate.
One of Bibi’s key supporters is the head of Knesset, with the authority to delay for a week the voting on the new government, to approve it and its Ministers. Opponents to the new government have won over one individual from Bennett’s party, who won’t participate in the effort to remove the Speaker of Knesset, but who so far holds on to his commitment to Bennett.
We can bet that Bibi will be active throughout the week, urging members of the new arrangement to depart from it , in response to promises that no one should expect to be delivered.
Bibi has labeled the opposition “leftist,” but it’s actually a combination that goes from ideologically leftist Meretz and Labor to rightists Bennett and Gideon Sa’ar who might be more rightist than Netanyahu. And it includes Arabs. Are they leftist? Or merely self-interested?
And on the day that this was put together, the Knesset selected a new President. Yitzhak “Boogie” Herzog, former head of the Labor Party, presently the head of the Jewish Agency, and the son of former President Chaim Herzog. He defeated his opponent with a high record 87 votes out of 120 Knesset Members. His opponent was a hardly known Miriam Peretz, who–in sharp contrast to Bibi–was a gracious loser, who hugged Herzog and urged a reuniting of the country as the greatest possible accomplishment.
Assuming that it survives the more than week-long effort of Bibi to unseat it, the new government will not have it easy. The egos and shaky ideologies of its members will have trouble deciding crucial issues. The presence in the agreement of Arabs, with their demands for money and leaving in place illegal settlements and housing will create their problems. As will the existence of the ultra-Orthodox parties in the opposition. What’ll happen to the support of their Yeshivot, and freedom from a number of taxes?
Israel has not had a real budget for a couple of years, as Bibi has opposed its passage. The new government will have something like three months to pass a budget; the Knesset will be disbanded without that.
So far the country has been operating on a continuing budget, with individual bills approved to allocate this or that to various ministries.
The country is not in bad shape. There’s a huge deficit in the current accounts, but that’s not unusual in the international setting of governments having to deal with Covid-19. Israel is largely free of the disease. And its high-tech industry is leading the economy, with most of its workers doing most of their work from home. Hospitals are operating at financial deficits; schools are crowded; traffic is usually snarled during peak hours; lots of building apartments for growing families; and claims of shortages here and there, but overall a shortage of looming disasters.
We won’t become socialistic. Neither will we annex the West Bank, or solve the issue of one state, two states, or a federation with the Palestinians. Lots of people will remain with their desires unfulfilled. But life will continue, with hiccups here and there.
Bibi will not go quietly. Neither will Sara. Or son Yair Natanyahu. Facebook has removed Yair Netanyahu from Instagram, due to his inflammatory writings. Great contrast with the quiet departure of Ehud Olmert from the position of Prime Minister, some years ago. Now Olmert has returned as an elder statesman. Included in his comments is a firm opposition to Bibi. The move of the Netanyahus from Balfour will be dramatic, assuming it occurs in order.
We’ll see.
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Ira Sharkansky, Ph.D. is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com