By Miriam Gershenson
SAN DIEGO — Dr. Mordechai Kedar, a Middle Eastern affairs expert, is no stranger to innovative and bold proposals for resolving long standing regional conflicts. Among his most discussed ideas is the 8-State Solution, or as he quickly clarifies, the “8 Emirates Solution.” During our conversation, he provided an in-depth explanation of the concept, grounded in his extensive experience and understanding of Middle Eastern geopolitics and sociology.
According to Kedar, the fundamental difference between successful and failed states lies in their societal structures. He divides the world into two categories:
- Successful States: Examples include Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE (the seven emirates), and Saudi Arabia. These nations are unified by a dominant clan or extended family, fostering shared ideologies, trust, and cohesion.
- Failed States: Examples include Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Sudan, Libya, and Yemen. These nations are conglomerates of tribes, clans, and religious groups forced into one state, leading to division, conflict, and dysfunction.
Kedar emphasizes that societies built on clan-based unity enjoy stability and prosperity. Conversely, when multiple groups with distinct identities and agendas are placed under one government, constant internal strife undermines governance and progress.
Kedar asserts that Palestinians, being a tribal society, fit into the latter category of failed states when grouped together. He proposes dividing Palestinian society into smaller emirates based on clans, with each city in Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) becoming its own autonomous state, governed by the dominant clan of that area. Examples include cities like Ramallah and Janin.
Under this model:
- Israel would retain control over rural areas and ensure security.
- Palestinian cities would become emirates, self-governing and independent, similar to Dubai or Abu Dhabi.
- This decentralization would enable each clan to thrive within its own governance structure, reducing internal conflict and increasing stability.
Kedar believes this approach mirrors the success of Gulf states and avoids the pitfalls of failed states like Lebanon or Syria.
When asked why the two-state solution has dominated discussions, Kedar pointed to a Western mindset. “People, especially Americans, think like Americans,” he said, referencing earlier conversations with Jewish community leaders (can be read about here). Western policymakers, accustomed to democratic and unified states, fail to grasp the deeply tribal and clan-based nature of Middle Eastern societies. Attempts to impose Western solutions on Middle Eastern conflicts often result in failure due to these fundamental differences.
I asked Kedar whether his idea has political support in Israel. He noted that while some Knesset members and two government ministers have expressed interest in the concept, it has not yet gained traction as official policy. “I’m not a future teller,” he remarked, reflecting on the uncertain path of political ideas in Israel.
Even in the aftermath of the October 7th atrocities, Kedar affirmed his belief that the 8 Emirates Solution remains a viable and effective strategy for long-term peace and stability.
When it came to Gaza, Kedar proposed a separate yet related approach. He suggested dividing Gaza into five districts, similar to its structure under Egyptian control:
- Beit Lahia
- Beit Hanoun
- Gaza City
- Khan Yunis
- Rafah
Each district would operate independently with its own leadership, minimizing cross-border conflicts and maintaining clear lines of governance.
In light of the October 7th attacks, I asked Kedar whether coexistence is still possible. He responded emphatically:
“Only if Israel is successful in deterring them forever.”
He stressed that Israel must project strength—acting decisively and disproportionately when necessary—to ensure its enemies fear attacking again. Israel’s rural areas, he argued, should be annexed to prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state, which he believes would devolve into a terror state akin to Hamas-controlled Gaza.
As someone from Ariel, the capital of Samaria, I asked Kedar about its potential inclusion in land concessions for peace. “No way!” he exclaimed, reaffirming his stance that Israel must retain control over rural areas in Judea and Samaria. Conceding these areas, he argued, would lead to chaos and undermine Israel’s security and sovereignty.
Kedar’s journey into Middle Eastern studies began in high school, inspired by a strict yet charismatic Arabic teacher who instilled a deep love for the language and culture in his students. This passion carried over into his 25-year career in the IDF’s intelligence unit, where he honed his expertise in Arabic and Middle Eastern affairs. Following his military service, he pursued an academic career in the Arabic department and currently serves as a commentator on Channel 14.
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Miriam Gershenson is a freelance writer.