By Alex Gordon in Haifa, Israel
The war in the Middle East (as of 2026) has evolved into a new type of hybrid conflict, where direct military actions (U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, operations in Lebanon) are inextricably linked to a large-scale economic blockade and a war of attrition, exerting a global impact.
The economic component has become the key battleground, turning a local conflict into a “global economic war.” The new war in the Middle East is a war of a new type, where, in addition to military actions, there is an economic blockade affecting the global economy. Therefore, it is the First Global Economic War.
The blockade of maritime routes and the destruction of infrastructure cause disruptions in supply chains, leading to rising prices for goods, container shipping, and fuel, provoking inflation worldwide. The conflict accelerates the risk of a global recession, making it deep and prolonged, and causing high volatility in the stock markets, an increase in insurance premiums for cargo transportation, and a decrease in investments in the region.
Market volatility is an indicator that reflects the degree of price variability of an asset (stocks, currencies, gold) or the market over a specific period of time. High volatility means sharp price fluctuations and is considered a measure of economic risk.
In the conflict with Iran, U.S. President Donald Trump has let the economic and energy genie out of the bottle, and the consequences of his actions are very difficult to control. Moreover, he creates an additional risk by negotiating and seeking to strike a deal with religious fanatics whom Sharia law permits to lie to “infidels” and breach any agreement. He misunderstands those he is at war with, mistaking them for partners. He takes what he desires for what is real.
If the deal he is seeking is concluded, it will be recorded on fake paper, just like many other fake peace treaties in history.
The closure or blockage of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has disrupted the supply of 20% of the world’s oil. Brent crude oil prices surged sharply, and consumers around the world felt the impact. Unlike past conflicts, the 2026 war led to a record increase in gasoline prices in the U.S., which exacerbated inflation.
The economy of the United States and the world faced a combination of high energy prices and slowing growth, increasing the risks of stagflation. Stagflation is a crisis state of the economy that combines stagnation (stagnation, lack of economic growth or decline in GDP, high unemployment) and inflation (rising prices). This is a dangerous phenomenon where production declines and prices rise, making it difficult to combat them with traditional methods.
Due to the rise in fuel and fertilizer prices passing through the conflict zone, U.S. farmers have faced increased production costs, with the majority stating that they are unable to meet their needs. The “maximum pressure” strategy has transformed into a prolonged war of attrition, where the “genie” of market instability has gotten out of control.
A black hole is a region in space with such monstrous gravity that nothing, not even light, can escape it. It forms when a very massive star dies, collapsing into a tiny, incredibly dense point. Everything that crosses its boundary (“event horizon”) can no longer return. A black hole as a metaphor symbolizes an area with irresistible gravity, absorbing energy, information, and resources. The conflict in the Middle East is dragging the parties into economic and military exhaustion without a clear quick solution.
An undeclared First World Economic War is underway, into which the global economy is being drawn into a black hole. The black hole of this war is colored black by oil. In such a turbulent world, any events are possible, for the war has encompassed numerous sectors of industry and economy and many countries. The world has grown smaller: countries have become more economically interdependent, and a local crisis can easily escalate into a global one. Any local strike against infrastructure in Iran or the Gulf states could lead to higher living costs for ordinary people in Europe, Asia, and the United States.
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Alex Gordon is professor emeritus of physics at the University of Haifa and at Oranim, the Academic College of Education. He is the author of 12 books.