By Aryeh Savir
The year 2013 saw a marked increase in the involvement of foreigners in the fighting against the Syrian regime, this according to a report compiled by the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center (ITIC). Most join Al-Qaeda and global jihad-affiliated organizations, gain military experience, and undergo radicalization and Jihadization, which they are later liable to import into their countries of origin through terrorist and subversive activities.
ITIC analyzed the phenomenon of foreign fighters participating in the fighting in Syria, and illustrates their potential for terrorism and subversion upon their return to their home countries. As of December 2013, the Jihadist Anti-Assad organizations have a combined membership of an estimated 9,000 fighters.
The ITIC’s overall estimate of the number of foreign fighters in Syria is between 6,000 and 7,000, from dozens of countries, and the number continually rises. Most of them, an estimated 6,000, have remained in Syria and participate in the fighting, primarily in the ranks of the Al-Nusra Front and the Islamic State. Some of them, an estimated 1,000, either have returned to their countries of origin, or were killed or wounded in the fighting, or captured by the Syrian army. The ITIC estimates the number of foreign fighters killed at about 500-700, that is, between 8% and 10% of the total number.
Most of the foreign fighters come from the Arab world. Others come from Western Europe and other Western countries, especially young men who are second and sometimes third generation Muslim immigrants. Their number is estimated at more than 1,000. Most of them come from Belgium, Britain, France, Holland and Germany. A third group is represented by fighters who come from Muslim countries and Muslim regions in Asia. Among them are skilled operatives, some with previous military-terrorist experience gained in Chechnya and Pakistan.
There are still relatively few Israeli Arabs and Palestinians fighting in Syria. An estimated 15-20 are Israeli Arabs; there are dozens of Gazans whose number has risen sharply, and a few individual fighters from Judea and Samaria. Among the fighters from Jordan, those of Palestinian extraction are prominent.
The report asserts that foreign fighters in the ranks of Jihadist organizations are a potential threat to international security. Some of them, having gained military experience and skills, and undergone Islamic radicalization, are liable to continue their terrorist and subversive activities when they return to their countries of origin. In addition, some of them may join already existent terrorist networks and become a catalyst for Islamic radicalization.
Upon return they may be handled by Al-Qaeda and global jihad organizations, exploiting the personal relationships formed in Syria with other fighters. Analysis of the foreign fighters indicates that the potential level of danger is higher for Western European countries, especially those with large communities of Muslim immigrants. the relatively large number of fighters from Western Europe; their hostility to the West; Syria’s geographical proximity to Western Europe; the relative logistic and operational ease of maintaining contact between the leadership of Al-Qaeda and global jihad organizations in Syria and the terrorist and subversive networks in Europe; and the legal, political and societal difficulties encountered when combating Islamic terrorism on European soil are factors to be considered. Moreover, Al-Qaeda and the global jihad are liable to activate the veterans of the war in Syria for terrorist acts not only in Europe itself but in other Western countries as well, including the US.
Another potential threat is that returning foreign fighters will be employed for terrorist and subversive purposes in Arab or Muslim countries, contributing to the constantly deteriorating stability in the region.
The State of Israel is also liable to be exposed to such threats, even if not necessarily in the near future, since the priority of global jihad organizations is to overthrow the Assad regime. Palestinians from the Gaza Strip, Judea and Samaria may undertake subversive and terrorist missions and their presence as veterans of the Syrian war may increase the operational capabilities of the Al-Qaeda-affiliated terrorist networks along Israel’s borders in Jordan, the Sinai Peninsula, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.
The issue of foreign fighters has become a global problem shared by the West, Israel and the Arab-Muslim world. Western countries, which in the past underwent the trauma of the “Afghanistan alumni” exploited by Al-Qaeda for terrorist purposes, are aware of the dangers, but so far they have not developed effective methods to deal with them in the fields of monitoring, prevention, legislation and punishment. The ITIC concludes the report by stating that returning foreign fighters are a ticking time bomb which can only be defused by international cooperation and joint systems to neutralize their terrorist-subversive potential.
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Preceding provided by Tazpit News Agency