The Wandering Review: Oscar Predictions

By Laurie Baron

SAN DIEGO — The following predictions of which films will win Oscars this Sunday should not be construed as a list of my favorite films from the previous year.  An election by the members of the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences determines the winners.  As in any election, they are influenced by the intensive publicity campaigns mounted ty the studios and by their own subjective considerations.  For example, how else could anyone explain Lee Marvin’s performance in Cat Ballou beating Rod Steiger’s in The Pawnbroker for the Best Actor Award of 1965?  Given the vagaries of this selection process, I will discuss the two frontrunners in each category after my prediction of the winner.  If you grade me on a win or place basis, my predictions should be pretty accurate.

Best Picture: Birdman

Either Birdman or Boyhood will receive this award.  Birdman relies on the semblance that it was done in one continuous shot and benefits from an amazing ensemble cast.  Boyhood was filmed over a period of twelve years with the same cast to replicate aging in the real time it takes a boy and his family to reach maturity.  Initially, film critics were certain Boyhood would win, but recently they discerned a shift in sentiment to the more innovative Birdman.

Best Director: Richard Linklater, Boyhood

It should be axiomatic that the director of the Best Picture should also receive the award for the Best Director, but that has not always been the case.  This year there is a good possibility that the Academy will try to honor Linklater by conferring the Best Director award while presenting Alejandro G. Iñárritu the Best Picture Award for Birdman.

Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Redmayne is favored for his convincing portrayal of Steven Hawking.  Yet Michael Keaton may end up walking away with the golden statuette for his role in Birdman.  Keaton is a television and movie veteran whose career trajectory parallels that of the character he plays.  Before Birdman, his last great part was as Batman in 1989.  His biography and strong performance may be a decisive factor in him edging out Redmayne.

Best Actress:  Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Julianne Moore appears to have a lock on this category.  Her depiction of a woman coping with Alzheimer’s Disease conveys what it like to be suffering from dementia while still being acutely aware of its progression.  It also doesn’t hurt that Moore has been nominated four times before, and never won.  The only serious competitor in this category is Marion Cotillard for Two Days, One Night, but it is a movie that has had only a limited release.

Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

This is another category with a prohibitive favorite.  It is difficult to imagine a more intense bit of acting than Simmons’ hardnosed drill sergeant of a band teacher.  The only performance that comes close is Edward Norton’s narcissistic actor in Birdman.

Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Aryette’s portrayal of a single mother who has a penchant for picking the wrong man as a mate deserved to be in the Best Actress category.   Placing her in the Best Supporting Actress category makes it difficult for any of the other contenders whose roles were less meaty to win.  Laura Dern was wonderful in Wild, but she wasn’t on screen much.

Best Foreign Language Film: Ida

When I reviewed Ida last summer, I predicted it would be nominated in this category and thought it had a good chance of winning.  I haven’t changed my opinion since then.  Its tale of a Polish nun on the verge of ordination discovering that her parents were Jews who died in the Holocaust is not only engaging, but beautifully filmed.  Its main competitor is Leviathan, a film which also features spectacular cinematography but is handicapped by its length and limited release.   

Best Documentary: Citizenfour    

Much as I loved the unravelling of the mystery surrounding the enigmatic street photographer in Finding Vivian Meier, Citizenfour’s candid exchanges with Edward Snowden shortly before he became the bête noire of the United States is more politically significant as winners in this category often are.

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Baron is a professor emeritus of history at San Diego State University.  He may be contacted at lawrence.baron@sdjewishworld.com