By Ira Sharkansky
JERUSALEM–The wet dream of the Palestinians is that someone else will solve their problems by forcing Israel to do what is right. They are told time and again by their leaders that it is only they who have suffered, and only they whose claims are just.
To their own harm, much of the world has signed onto some or all of their narrative. It is common to demand that Israel go back to where it was in 1967. Well-to-do countries pour resources into Palestine, either via UNRWA, or as direct grants to the Palestine National Authority.
The Arab League has adopted the Palestinian baby as its own, and can be counted upon to weigh in with its demands on Israel and others. The League has approved indirect talks between Palestinians and Israelis, and insists on the right to decide if the talks can move into a direct mode.
Now the Palestinians seem to have the American White House in their corner. It is thanks to President Obama that there is about to be another round of negotiations between Palestinians and Israelis.
This is a time for great expectations and speculation. Is there a Palestinian State in the offing? Or will the Palestinians miss another opportunity?
Being modest in the extreme, I will avoid the big questions, and confine myself to comments on the value of all that help the Palestinians have received.
One of my views is that the Palestinians are suffering from the world’s worst case of welfare dependence. Another is that there are too many cooks in this kitchen to produce a good broth.
Welfare kills, at least in the quantity that it has come to Palestinians. If any of their officials have had the skill or the will to join Israelis in formulating a decent proposal for dividing what is available, that has been emasculated by six generations of feeding at someone else’s table and demanding one or another great power to solve their problems.
This may be the Palestinians last chance to work with Israel, rather than with Americans, the UN, Europeans, the Arab League, Third World or non-governmental allies.
It is only Israeli authorities who can agree to something that most Israelis want to achieve: a reasonable division of the land, in light of what has happened to it up until today. If the Palestinians do not make that effort this time, Israelis might gobble up so much of what remains that Palestinians will go the way of the Dodo bird, or all those American Indian tribes that used to be.
The active engagement of the White House, the Arab League, and other hangers-on does not bode well for negotiations. They will reinforce Palestinian dependence on others, and Palestinian insistence on the full mantra of their standard demands.
Palestinians would be better off working with Israel to define an accommodation that appeals to both parties.
That will not be easy. One problem for the Palestinians will come from the insistence of the Arab League and others in behalf of the standard demands. Another is the composition of the Israeli government. It is not a Palestine-friendly collection of individuals and political parties.
President Obama might help the Palestinians with his rhetoric, but they should remember that he is an American, and not an Arab president. That means he is in a position to lead public opinion at home and abroad, but is dependent on others in political arrangements that may be the most multi-faceted and complex in the world. Congress and the Democratic Party do not make foreign policy, but they provide leverage on the president for American voters, opinion leaders, interest groups, campaign donors, and fund raisers.
We saw some of this at work in the recent moderation of a White House-Israel squabble. It came after a number of prominent Americans expressed the view that the President was too attentive to Palestinian, and not sufficiently concerned with Israeli interests.
Barack Obama likes accomplishments. Like a pragmatic politician in the way of western democracies, he may be more concerned with getting a deal than bothering with all the details.
Will the Palestinians find themselves caught between the insistence of the Arab League and other enthusiasts, their own fascination with a long-serving narrative, a stubborn Israeli government, and an American President pushing for a deal? And what if the American President decides that he cannot go against Israelis and Americans turned off, once again, by Palestinian insistence?
This is not a time for detailed predictions, and it is not my style in any case.
In the remote possibility that any of my words may get to the Palestinians who are involved in this process, I would urge them to stop dreaming, wake up, and take their future into their own hands.
*
Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University