By Dow Marmur
JERUSALEM– If you can’t wait for Israel to get a different government, please think again. Whether or not your hope is legitimate, the evidence is that it won’t be realized. The most up-to-date poll published in Friday’s Ha’aretz suggests that had new elections been held now, the outcome would be more or less the same and, therefore, the next coalition would be very similar to the present one.
The main loser would be Ehud Barak, the former leader of Labour whose new party would only get two seats. Though four of his gang-of-five are currently ministers and the fifth a chair of a parliamentary committee, three would be out had there been an election today. Though members of what’s left of Labour are relieved at having lost their leader, the poll suggests that even with his most popular replacement, it would only get ten seats. How have the mighty fallen!
The hope of Kadima being in the centre of a new coalition isn’t borne out by the figures: the likelihood is that Likud may even get a seat or two more (both are hovering around 30 out of the 120 Knesset members). Though 54% of those asked disapprove of Netanyahu and only 39% approve, he’s still rated higher than his rivals within the coalition or outside it. Sadly, it’s difficult to think of an obvious alternative.
The most likely change of scene in the Israeli political theatre is if the police decide, after all those years of alleged investigation, to indict Avigdor Lieberman for corruption which may force him to cease to be a minister (even though he could stay in the Knesset until he’s convicted, which may not happen in the near future or ever).
Though it’s probably unfair to blame only Lieberman for the rock-bottom standing that Israel has at present in the international community, a more acceptable face as foreign minister would undoubtedly be an advantage.
But it could also go the other way. Commentators who claim to be in the know speak of Lieberman’s ambition to become prime minister. Though I claim to be ignorant, I still can see it happen in a re-alignment that would merge Likud with Yisrael Beiteinu (Lieberman’s party) and oust Netanyahu as leader to be replaced by Lieberman.
As things seem at the moment, however, the dominant and toxic troika in the government (Netanyahu-Lieberman-Barak) is likely to be around well beyond the next general election, i.e., for several years to come. Observers have expressed misgivings about it not because of their politics, but because of their poor judgment. An example:
Barak is said to want to get rid of the current chief of staff Gabi Ashkenazi (who seems like a good guy to me) as soon as possible and replace him with Yo’av Galant, even though the latter has a potential law suit against him because of illegal land grabs surrounding his palatial home in Moshav Amikam in the North. It may result in Galant not being allowed to take up his post next month. Questions are being asked about the competence of the team and their advisers in announcing the appointment without due diligence. Some say that it’s characteristic of their limited abilities.
Of course the troika in Israel isn’t the only political team in the world with bad judgment and idiosyncratic agendas. Therefore, at least those who take pride in Jews finally having become like all other nations aren’t embarrassed by the situation. I wish I could share their sense of ease and comfort. Please feel free to worry with me.
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Marmur is spiritual leader emeritus of Holy Blossom Temple in Toronto. He now divides his time between Canada and Israel