By Lloyd Levy
LONDON –Events in Egypt highlight what seems to my mind to be the incomprehensible naivete of the U.S. Administration in its Middle East policy.
The Egyptian Government has been the object of a well planned coup , using the very modern and ingenious method of stage managing a “revolution,” in a large square in the centre of Cairo, chosen because it can be viewed throughout the world by well placed TV cameras. It is a piece of theatre. Who the puppet masters are, will no doubt come to light in some future Wikileaks revelation.
The US President’s and UK Prime Minister’s increasingly hysterical demands for Hosni Mubarak to step down, are frightening. The implications for Israel in relying on the “West” are just too dreadful to contemplate, if such a long standing and faithful ally as Mubarak can be demonised in such a manner.
Make no mistake, Israel will likely be the next target of the Administration’s onslaught. Having made the argument that “democracy” and “freedom” over-ride alliances, they will probably demand that Israel give “independence” to a Palestinian State. The policy will be washed down with sweet words about Israel’s security, which in practice will be meaningless.
Egypt undoubtedly has major problems due to a very high population of young people, and poor job prospects. The difficult economic situation, and the increase in world food prices has been a major factor in unrest in many countries. In that regard Egypt is not unique. It is hardly a democracy, but my goodness, it is hardly the most authoritarian regime in the world.
So who are these opposition forces that the U.S. administration thinks are waiting in the wings ? A handful of youth twittering on their i-Phones ? ElBaradei, the man who covered up Iran’s nuclear programme for years ? The Muslim Brotherhood, which is the leading jihadist organisation in the World, and out of which the whole jihadist movement originated in the mid 20th Century? Hamas is a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, and becoming the ruling party in Gaza has not modified or tempered its extremism one iota. Hamas has at the time of my writing this article, just blown up the Egypt-Israel gas pipeline, thereby cutting off 25% of Israel’s gas supply in one stroke. The chaos that will ensue if the Muslim Brotherhood come to power in Egypt, is unimaginable. How the US can even think of insisting that they be let into the Egyptian Government, is beyond any comprehension. It will also mean the end of the 10 million Christian Copts who live in Egypt, who will be forced out of the country in due course
Are Egypt, and then rapidly to follow Israel, to be sacrificed in the name of “democracy,” because that’s the naïve ideology of the U.S. Administration at this time? “Democracy” led to the regime of the Ayatollahs in Iran, complete chaos in Iraq, extremism in Gaza, and countless deaths in Algeria. Real democracy means first of all, a civil and tolerant society, and after that the vote. The transition can take generations, otherwise it just leads to the tyranny of the majority.
I assume all that Israel can do in the short term, is to hope that Mubarak or his regime, can hold onto power, thus ensuring a degree of peace on Israel’s southern border. Then they must resist pressure by the “West” to withdraw militarily from the West Bank, which is suicide. Then they must pray that they can hold out, until this or another U.S, Administration, changes its policy.
The alternative, is that Israel will be surrounded by hostiles again, on all its borders. In those circumstances a major conflagration is almost certainly unavoidable.
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Levy is a businessman who divides his time between the United Kingdom and Israel.