LA JOLLA, California — The announcement of President Obama’ trip to Israel (and the territories) has surprised many people both here and in Israel where it has been received with fear and apprehension.
It is certainly not a leisure trip with sightseeing and enjoyment; nor is it a religious pilgrimage to the holy sites of the three religions.
Some pundits believe the trip is undertaken for political reasons, to help gain support for Obama’s second term programs.
I disagree since he didn’t do it before the 2008 elections when he was a candidate, and he didn’t do it before the 2012 elections when he was already the president, which could have helped him.
So what has changed since? Two big novelties: the Arab Spring that is now a very dark and ominous Islamist Winter, and the proximity of Iran becoming a weaponized nuclear power. Obama and Netanyahu may discuss the first situation: Netanyahu may ask why America is giving Egypt–not even selling, with the profit motive as extenuating circumstance– 20 F16 fighter-planes and 200 Abrams tanks when everybody knows that they can only be used against Israel; Obama will finesse a prepared vague and non-committal answer, and that’s all .
The second situation, Iran, is in my opinion the main dish of the encounter with the ubiquitous condiment of the Israeli-Palestinian peace prospects which will give Obama something to talk about when he meets Mahmoud Abbas, no more.
Iran, then: Many in Israel say that Obama will warn Israel not to attack Iran without his approval and consent despite efforts by Netanyahu to show him his red line which he had produced at the UN and maybe inform him on the latest intelligent reports he, Obama, may not be privy to. Some even fear threats from Obama if Israel doesn’t listen to him and to his argument that there is more time in his own calendar. People in this camp believe in this scenario because Obama has nominated , and the Senate approved, Hagel as Defense Secretary and Brennan as CIA Director, both antagonistic to Israel, and Kerry as Secretary of State not very enthusiastic either.
At the other extreme, the optimists in Israel believe that Obama is coming to coordinate with Israel the implementation of his own “doctrine” not to allow Iran to obtain the atomic bomb–as opposed to Hagel’s response to the Senators that he prefers containment and believes, wrongly, that it is the policy of the Obama administration. People in this camp have a tendency to believe that Israel cannot do it alone and had better let America do it. Nice wishful thinking!
In less than two weeks, we will know the truth. Whatever the reasons for the trip, it was reported that it will cost us the taxpayers $100 million (hard to believe) and will cause Israel to spend $15 million. And this because it will take two Air Force jets to carry the president (without his wife) and his entourage and more than one huge advance-party plane carrying in its belly helicopters and armored vehicles and other stuff, and an armada of military professionals etc. Apparently, the president’s security services do not rely on Israel’s vaunted ones and certainly not on what Mr Abbas could muster.
In my opinion, if the fear is so intense,and the project so expensive, maybe the president should stay home. This is what ambassadors are for. It is puzzling that the Secretary of State’s visit to the Middle-East included ten countries but not Israel. A little detour would have obviated the necessity of the president’s trip , avoiding the dangers and the waste of resources.
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Yetiv is a freelance writer and lecturer based in La Jolla, California. He may be contacted at isaac.yetiv@sdjewishworld.com