By J. Zel Lurie
DELRAY BEACH, Florida –The two men sat side by side with clenched jaws as they faced the press after a two-hour emotional meeting. They were the presidents of the two greatest superpowers, the United States and Russia.
What to do about the two-year-old civil war in Syria that has divided the Muslim world into waring tribes of Sunnis and Shiites is the topic on which the two presidents argued passionately.
“We have different perspectives on Syria,” President Putin said calmly. As he spoke, the New York Times reported, President Obama stared fixedly at the carpet.
The meeting took place a month ago at the Group of 8 meeting in Northern Ireland. They argued vehemently over Russian arms flowing into Damascus and Obama’s plans to help the rebels. The Syrian dictator, the head of the Alawites, has been killing Sunni rebels for over two years. The Alawites are a Shiite sect. They are concentrated along the coast of Syria and in the port city of Latakia.
President Obama, with eloquent phrases, tried to persuade President Putin to end, or reduce, the flow of Russian arms into Latakia, President Putin insisted that he would honor the arms contract he signed with Bashar al-Assad in 2010.
I believe that Obama stressed the danger of sending the powerful Russian anti-aircraft missiles, the S-300, to Bashar al-Assad. The S-300 has an accurate range of 125 miles. Several batteries of S-300s in Damascus could neutralize the entire Israel air force. All of Israel, including occupied territories, would be a no-fly-zone.
Civilian traffic into Ben Gurion International Airport would be endangered.
Needless to say, the IDF will do everything in its power to stop this disaster.
The Israeli press reports that in 2009 Israel made a deal with Russia. Israel would stop selling arms to the Georgian Army, which was resisting a Russian invasion, if Russia would refrain from selling the S-300 to Syria.
In mid-May, Israel intelligence learned that Russia was ready to send the first shipment of S-300 missiles to Syria. After several frantic calls to Moscow and Washington, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu scheduled a quick trip to Sochi, the Black Sea resort where Putin was staying. The only result of this visit was a photo of the two leaders shaking hands.
According to the Israeli press, it would take the Syrians six months after receiving the S-300 missiles to set them up and make them functional. The IDF will see to it that they never become operatonal.
Hezbollah, the Shiite faction in Lebanon, has depleted its militias by shipping thousands of its fighters to join Assad’s army. Hezbollah is risking its standing in Lebanon, but it may be following the orders of its mentors, the Shiite clerics in Iran.
If and when Israel is forced to enter the Syrian fray by the arrival of Russian S-300 anti-aircraft missiles, Hezbollah may once again unleash its store of Iranian missiles against Israel’s northern cities. This time the IDF, I hope, will be better prepared and the attacks will be brief.
The Group of 8 meeting occurred three or four weeks ago. Last week in Qatar Secretary of State John Kerry formed his own group of 9 by rejuvenating the Friends of Syria.
The Friends group was organized a year ago after Russia and China had vetoed a Security Council resolution condemning Assad’s government. It met several times with Secretary Hillary Clinton but the Obama administration feared the section of the Syrian rebels who are linked with anti-American Islamists and was not ready to act.
Kerry’s group of 9 is half Sunni Arab — Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt — who are joined by the United States, Britain, Germany, France and Italy. Qatar has used its own funds and that supplied by Saudi Arabia to buy much of the arsenal of arms collected by Col. Moammar Gadhafi during the four decades in which he ruled Libya.
The arms route to aid Syrian rebels is well established. They are shipped to Turkey and run overland to Syria. Along the way, the anti-American Muslim extremists manage to siphon off about a fifth of the arms.
American arms will probably go through Jordan, and every effort will be made to keep them out of the hands of the Islamists.
This was a quick survey of the complex military situation in the Middle East towards the end of June. July will not be better and may get worse if S-300 missiles arrive un Damascus.
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Lurie is a freelance writer based in Delray Beach, Florida. He may be contacted at jzel.lurie@sdjewishworld.com