(Following updates and corrects previous version)
By Donald H. Harrison
SAN DIEGO– For those supporters of First District City Council candidate Barbara Bry who believed her chances against businessman Ray Ellis are better in the November general election than in the June primary contest, the beginning of March brought some good news and bad news.
The good news was when retired hospital architect Louis Rodolico took out papers on March 2 to run in the district being vacated by termed-out Councilwoman Sherri Lightner. Not so well known as either Bry or Ellis, Rodolico is familiar to voters in the University City portion of the district, and they might have been in sufficient numbers to deny a majority in the June election to either Ellis or Bry, thus forcing a November runoff election — a scenario that supposedly would favor Democrats.
But the following day, March 3, Lightner’s husband, Bruce, an engineer, also took out nominating papers, saying he wanted to continue the councilwoman’s legacy. Spousal name recognition may make him a formidable candidate to win one of the two runoff spots in November. Nominating papers also were taken out by Kyle Heiskala, an aide in Lightner’s office. Papers need to be returned by March 10 to the City Clerk’s office with 100 valid signatures of voters registered in the district and a fee of $200. That fee may be waived if 1,000 valid signatures are collected in the candidate’s behalf.
While the City Council office is non-partisan, with no party affiliation listed on the ballot, party officials, media, and donors are well aware that Ellis is a Republican, whereas Bry, Heiskala and Rodolico all are Democrats. A surprise is that Bruce Lightner, husband of the Democratic councilwoman, is himself registered as a Republican.
With Republicans like Mitt Romney and John McCain heavily criticizing GOP presidential front runner Donald Trump, the feeling is that the excitement of that race will carry over to the balloting in California’s June 7 primary election. Voting in the contested election at the top of the GOP ticket may also lead to Republicans voting heavily in races lower down on the ballot, including that for the First District of the City Council.
In contrast, the Democratic race between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders–being a one-on-one match–may be settled before California voters have a chance to have their say in the June 7 primary. With Clinton’s lead said to be already a commanding one, after her seven victories compared to Sanders’ four on Super Tuesday, a settled presidential contest might depress Democratic voter turnout in the June election, lowering the pool of voters likely to choose among Bry, Heiskala, and Rodolico.
When the two top vote-getters in the June election have a runoff in November, it will coincide with the election pitting the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees directly against each other. Depending on how much excitement that race generates, turnout can be high. Political insiders–the so called “pundits”–take it for granted that Democratic candidates for less important offices will do better in a general election than in a primary one.
The reason the District One City Council contest attracts attention citywide is because the current partisan makeup of the City Council is 5 Democrats and 4 Republicans. If Ellis or Bruce Lightner were to win, and party affiliations do not change in the other four districts facing elections this cycle (Districts 3, 5, 7, and 9), then Republicans, rather than Democrats, would have the majority. With the Republican incumbent, Mayor Kevin Faulconer, expected to have a fairly easy road to reelection–notwithstanding opposition from former Assemblywoman Lori Saldana and former City Councilman Ed Harris–that would put Republicans in control of both the legislative and executive branches of city government.
For the Jewish community, there is added interest in the race. Bry is active in Jewish communal affairs.
In response to the most recent developments, Bry issued a comment that said, in part: “After 30 years of working with start-ups, I am used to adapting to quickly changing landscapes… I believe more points of view contribute to a more diverse and constructive debate about how we can improve the quality of life in District 1.”
Ellis said although Bruce Lightner is registered as a Republican, he is likely to draw more Democratic voters than Republicans because the Democratic party affiliation of his wife, the retiring city councilwoman, is known.
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Harrison is editor of San Diego Jewish World. He may be contacted via donald.harrison@sdjewishworld.com. Comments intended for publication in the space below must be accompanied by the letter writer’s first and last name and by his/ her city and state of residence (city and country for those outside the U.S.)