By Ira Sharkansky
JERUSALEM — An American envoy has produced a draft agreement between Lebanon and Israel for maritime borders, a bit close to an Israeli election. It seems fair but in context it is mired in disputes.
It’s important because of gas, under the sea, which could help Lebanon a great deal in its current economic problems.
The line proposed moves westward from the land borders and makes a southern swiggle to accommodate a prospective gas field where Labanon can drill.
Might Israel gain an economic benefit, via some payments for its share of what Lebanon produces from the southern swiggle?
That’s one of the unanswered questions.
Along with the error of announcing the draft agreement in the run-up to the Israeli election.
The announcement produced an immediate response from Benyamin Netanyahu that he would not recognize the agreement if he were the Prime Minister.
That’s been echoed by Bibi’s allies in Likud and has produced some questions by other politicians. And Bibi’s been attacked as unreasonable by Americans and others.
Lebanese–who do not recognize Israel–have expressed their own reservations about the agreement.
Lebanon has long presented its own Middle Eastern complications.
It’s divided between Christians and Moslems, formerly with a Jewish minority, and currently with a tough Iranian presence in Hezbollah, often judged to be equivalent or stronger than the formal government.
Optimists indicate that decisions will be postponed until after the Israeli election.
Hopefully the voting won’t put Netanyahu in a position of decision, and we can go forward.
The Americans were given the task of producing a draft agreement, and the man they chose for doing the deal is a Jew, a former Israeli, and veteran of the IDF, who subsequently moved to Washington and joined the State Department. Amos Hochstein expresses the mix of Israeli and American identities. He’s produced something that seems reasonable, especially given Israel’s economic strength and Lebanon’s economic desperation.
It’s come not only in the process of an Israeli election but in the context of Hezbollah’s long-standing opposition to Israel, bankrolled as it is by Iran.
So, add to the economic differences between Israel and Lebanon the furor produced by what may be thousands of Hezbollah rockets and the capacity of Israel to more or less destroy much of Lebanon in response. Currently Hezbollah has threatened to attack Israel’s gas platform, a large and complex entity in what the potential agreement would assign to Israel south of its line and the swiggle that benefits Lebanon. Meantime there’s an Israeli warship equipped with missiles to protect that platform.
Our election is less than three weeks away. Post-election negotiations will take some time, and perhaps reach the point where there’ll be yet another election.
And then we may get to an agreement with Lebanon, signed or simply acknowledged, with an American former Israeli looking on.
All that, along with Netanyahu’s incendiary proclamation, makes for a messy situation.
In the midst of all this, Chag sameach.
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Ira Sharkansky, Ph.D., is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com