By Rabbi Dow Marmur
JERUSALEM — When, not if, the current government of Israel breaks up, the formal cause of it will the stance of Avigdor Lieberman, the defense minister and leader of the Yisrael Beitinu party. As the protector, in his ministerial capacity, of universal conscription, which the ultra-Orthodox seek to challenge by introducing legislation that would exempt their yeshiva students, and as a staunch secularist who seeks to curb the domination of haredim, Lieberman refuses to be part of a compromise that would save the present coalition by making further concessions to them.
By all accounts, he won’t do well in the elections. Though he has become a responsible cabinet member (“the most adult among them,” we hear sometimes) and apparently not a bad minister of defense, the Russian base of his party is shrinking and one of the former members of his parliamentary faction has decided to form her own party thus competing with the man who once was her boss.
So why is he offering himself up as a lamb to the slaughter? Perhaps it’s because of a secret deal he has made with Netanyahu. Journalists who speculate in rumors and innuendos (yes, they do exist….) tell us that it’s Netanyahu who wants the elections now for at least two reasons.
First, opinion polls indicate that his party will do well also in the next round and may, indeed, remain the largest party which would enable the current prime minister to form the next government.
The existing coalition partners aren’t likely to do well; if they make gains, it’ll be at the expense of the Zionist Union, which is expected to lose many mandates. Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid is projected to do well, but not well enough to form a government, because the ultra-Orthodox won’t sit with him and it’s not likely that anybody can form any government in Israel without the haredim.
But polls are unreliable and it’s, therefore, unlikely that they alone would have made Netanyahu decide to have early elections. A more compelling theory has it that as the likelihood of his indictment is coming closer, he needs time to avert the evil day. As long as the election campaign is on and during the months that follow when a new government is being formed, it’ll be impossible to indict him. And if he succeeds again, the police and the judiciary will find it extremely hard to put him on trial.
In order to make us believe that the consideration about his personal future isn’t on his mind at all, he may have got Lieberman to be the bad boy for which he’d be amply rewarded.
Watching Netanyahu address the Knesset the other day I found it impossible not to be impressed by his stamina and his arguments why he’s the best possible prime minister of Israel and his coalition a reflection of it. He also pointed to successes in the country’s economy and on the international scene. Corruption wasn’t in his notes.
This doesn’t mean that what the prime minister wants will actually happen, for there’re possibilities of a split within the political right in Israel with former chief of staff and defense minister Moshe Ya’alon gaining the upper hand. Reputedly disgruntled and frustrated members of Netanyahu’s own party may join Ya’alon if they find better prospects there.
Once again we’re in for an interesting albeit not enjoyable time ahead. So what’s new?
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Rabbi Marmur is spiritual leader emeritus of Holy Blossom Temple in Toronto, Canada. He may be contacted via dow.marmur@sdjewishworld.com