Shoshana Bryen

The still-tentative agreement between Qatar and Saudi Arabia to reopen political relations and closed borders after four years is part of the Trump administration’s priority to reduce friction among its allies. The goal is to decrease the possibility that American forces will waste time and capability putting out smaller fires, thus leaving them in a better position to deal with broader issues: cybersecurity, improving readiness, boosting NATO, countering China and not participating in civil wars in the Middle East, Southwest Asia, and Africa. Out of Syria. Out of Afghanistan. Out of Somalia. Out of Iraq? [Shoshana Bryen]

The United States is Israel’s ally of first choice. And Israel remains one of the few countries the US can rely on to defend itself by itself and in coordination with American interests. Today, Israel lies in EUCOM – the United States European Command – while some analysts suggest it belongs in CENTCOM – the Central Command, encompassing the Middle East and parts of Southwest and Central Asia. [Shoshana Bryen]

We’re rather familiar with “the Squad,” but what about “the Quint” and “the Quad?” For now, the latter two are more likely than the former to have importance to a potential Biden administration.With the announcement of Tony Blinken as secretary of State and Jake Sullivan as national security adviser, the anti-Israel far left is at bay for now — both men are known to be personally reasonably disposed toward Israel. But if the Quint has an impact on the administration’s Middle East policy, both regarding Israel and Iran, and the Squad joins in, the U.S. position in the region will suffer. [Shoshana Bryen]

The focus of Middle East peacemaking changed from requiring Israel to pay the Palestinians in the currency of statehood (“risks for peace”) to a request that the Arab States consider the economic and security needs of their own people in deciding whether and how to approach the State of Israel. The result is the Abraham Accords, broadly accepted by countries that have not signed; a new compact with Jordan; and feelers from other countries. The United States abandoned the untenable position of “neutral party” between Israel, which is our democratic ally, and the Palestinian Authority, which is not. The U.S. has moved to a position of honest broker, which is vastly more appropriate. U.S.-Israel security cooperation, grounded in our commonality, continues through the pandemic. [Shoshana Bryen]

Aside from the devastation of the Wuhan virus, Iraq closed its 1,000-mile southern border with Iran for “security reasons” after months of Iraqi protests against Iranian interference in its domestic affairs. Oil prices flirted with zero in the wake of the Russia-Saudi oil war, and demand dropped owing to the virus, further gutting Iran’s treasury. Iran harassed U.S. Navy ships in the Persian Gulf, but according to Navy sources, the action was clearly for domestic consumption and posed no actual threat (although a mistake on either side could have had major repercussions, making President Trump’s warning more than reasonable). Germany, Tehran’s strongest defender in Europe, pulled the plug on Iran’s proxy army Hezb’allah. More than 390 members of the U.S. House of Representatives — including Ilhan Omar, not normally an opponent of the Iranian government — called for extending the international arms embargo against Iran, set to expire in October. [Shoshana Bryen]